{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d610480-f357-4edc-8ccd-01c42c71941d", "symbol": "RENX", "name": "Renalytix Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.866, "architecture_energy": 55.782, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.41, "rotation_up": 73.81, "upward_expansion": 45.64, "deceleration": 24.88, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 27.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.030233, 0.027009, 0.023519, 0.024473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.037, "trend_reference": 0.029408, "distance_from_trend": 0.258147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.15663, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.763774, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.599647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.362069, "excess_performance": -0.413304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.258147, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.763774, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.428095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.362069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.102682, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7921964, "relative_activity": 2.22455, "balance": 3.102682, "dry_up": 1.120145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132225, "annualized_volatility": 0.892653, "from_high_reference": -0.76129, "from_low_reference": 1.3125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029408, "fair_value_reference": 0.15663, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.154497, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.259459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.375969, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.395663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119048, "worst_return": -0.648148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.592054, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.672099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.913462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.686012, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.779872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.479167, "worst_return": -0.892857, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.582278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.108612, "energy": 28.671261, "activity_lines": [ 0.0261, 0.023491, 0.021529, 0.024351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0265, "volume": 767353, "typical_volume": 3554455.0, "trend": 0.030258, "fair_value": 0.163284, "relative_strength": -50.385149, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.890708, "energy": 29.420275, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.024373, 0.022012, 0.024038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.037, "volume": 7921964, "typical_volume": 3561154.05, "trend": 0.029408, "fair_value": 0.15663, "relative_strength": -29.599647, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.865704, "energy": 55.781999, "activity_lines": [ 0.030233, 0.027009, 0.023519, 0.024473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }