{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d62f49c-2699-4a98-a03e-662c5412e6f8", "symbol": "2754", "name": "Kura Sushi Asia Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.521, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.512, "architecture_energy": 8.57, "architecture_maturity": 14.196, "architecture_confidence": 58.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.18, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 31.24, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 44.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.8355, 68.298953, 68.091917, 68.716234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 69.5, "trend_reference": 70.432003, "distance_from_trend": -0.013233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.662472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.414527, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090701, "excess_performance": -0.532073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013233, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075952, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090701, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491051, "relative_activity": 1.75709, "balance": 1.597041, "dry_up": 0.908516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054407, "annualized_volatility": 0.194668, "from_high_reference": -0.309111, "from_low_reference": 0.075888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.432003, "fair_value_reference": 91.662472, "structural_low": 64.597796, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010208, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.00868, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.096866, "worst_return": -0.178487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039136, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013466, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.589643, "worst_return": -0.114053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.112746, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255883, "worst_return": -0.159303, "sufficient": 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253964.05, "trend": 72.451443, "fair_value": 94.173109, "relative_strength": -39.892471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.960359, "energy": 26.656121, "activity_lines": [ 67.582772, 67.58875, 67.947678, 69.48566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.655098, "volume": 101002, "typical_volume": 253600.45, "trend": 71.892581, "fair_value": 93.481691, "relative_strength": -39.914855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.701375, "energy": 19.691657, "activity_lines": [ 67.648521, 67.547508, 67.849525, 69.176218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.35923, "volume": 168000, "typical_volume": 253397.15, "trend": 71.337008, "fair_value": 92.843408, "relative_strength": -38.50005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.965776, "energy": 19.341933, "activity_lines": [ 67.576198, 67.46861, 67.751841, 68.883744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.120659, "volume": 255553, "typical_volume": 257421.6, "trend": 70.880056, "fair_value": 92.259515, "relative_strength": -36.638074, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.169418, "energy": 6.823339, "activity_lines": [ 68.398053, 67.970688, 67.953313, 68.80527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 69.5, "volume": 491051, "typical_volume": 279468.4, "trend": 70.432003, "fair_value": 91.662472, "relative_strength": -38.414527, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.51198, "energy": 8.569602, "activity_lines": [ 68.8355, 68.298953, 68.091917, 68.716234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }