{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d63447b-0160-4411-a091-e17a8b20ace2", "symbol": "002078", "name": "Shandong Sunpaper Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.141, "architecture_energy": 23.768, "architecture_maturity": 81.81, "architecture_confidence": 64.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 43.04, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 53.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.980667, 13.48806, 13.529611, 13.983813 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.75, "trend_reference": 14.62965, "distance_from_trend": -0.060128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.587046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.707398, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.182521, "excess_performance": -0.189921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060128, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.416704, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91600146, "relative_activity": 1.070493, "balance": 1.416704, "dry_up": 1.365927, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075098, "annualized_volatility": 0.322392, "from_high_reference": -0.222285, "from_low_reference": 0.174129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.62965, "fair_value_reference": 13.587046, "structural_low": 11.710811, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012693, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.010884, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.19528, "worst_return": -0.164326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103839, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.046805, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.183807, "worst_return": -0.118843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088239, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.008737, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.196982, "worst_return": -0.093823, 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"close": 14.28, "volume": 146811828, "typical_volume": 86301228.5, "trend": 14.732983, "fair_value": 13.540102, "relative_strength": -3.495151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.53595, "energy": 20.053534, "activity_lines": [ 13.3978, 13.124769, 13.486368, 14.056026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.56, "volume": 99947302, "typical_volume": 86015635.1, "trend": 14.696316, "fair_value": 13.566231, "relative_strength": 0.197338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.983996, "energy": 21.504532, "activity_lines": [ 13.911333, 13.393687, 13.542418, 14.044866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.75, "volume": 91600146, "typical_volume": 85568156.95, "trend": 14.62965, "fair_value": 13.587046, "relative_strength": -9.707398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.14055, "energy": 23.767967, "activity_lines": [ 13.980667, 13.48806, 13.529611, 13.983813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }