{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d6445d6-5056-4f1b-95fe-ae96571b4c98", "symbol": "PLTR", "name": "Palantir Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.154, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.904, "architecture_energy": 19.447, "architecture_maturity": 37.031, "architecture_confidence": 38.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.4, "rotation_up": 51.2, "upward_expansion": 23.91, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 18.68, "downward_expansion": 29.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.041332, 115.983636, 116.374285, 117.903956 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 146.059998, "trend_reference": 120.672999, "distance_from_trend": 0.210378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.407596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.886895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.90166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.299004, "excess_performance": 0.124757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.210378, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.886895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156851, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.299004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.638086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7558, "relative_activity": 1.707, "balance": 0.638086, "dry_up": 1.540433, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091111, "annualized_volatility": 0.704627, "from_high_reference": -0.180175, "from_low_reference": 0.541856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.672999, "fair_value_reference": 77.407596, "structural_low": 94.730003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.021044, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021044, "worst_return": -0.021044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.704988, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.810965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.704988, "worst_return": 0.704988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.710834, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.814094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.710834, "worst_return": 0.710834, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.751364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.771883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.751364, "worst_return": 1.751364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.288712, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.318692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.230133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0217, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.065, "volume": 1170, "typical_volume": 1398.45, "trend": 10.607367, "fair_value": 13.925164, "relative_strength": 42.515785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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74.759423, "relative_strength": -34.136134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.32986, "energy": 60.33385, "activity_lines": [ 109.087333, 112.725454, 116.311523, 119.101762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.040001, "volume": 8623, "typical_volume": 4038.4, "trend": 124.137666, "fair_value": 75.400449, "relative_strength": -29.57843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.183863, "energy": 44.501291, "activity_lines": [ 111.029333, 112.756545, 115.891666, 118.411677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.82, "volume": 6589, "typical_volume": 4116.05, "trend": 122.278333, "fair_value": 75.998494, "relative_strength": -33.689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.966434, "energy": 31.19272, "activity_lines": [ 110.694, 111.676, 114.883428, 117.42344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.559998, "volume": 4512, "typical_volume": 4119.35, "trend": 120.893666, "fair_value": 76.560865, "relative_strength": -35.629403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.419225, "energy": 34.953521, "activity_lines": [ 109.119999, 109.937636, 113.586713, 116.280322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.059998, "volume": 7558, "typical_volume": 4427.65, "trend": 120.672999, "fair_value": 77.407596, "relative_strength": -11.90166, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.904272, "energy": 19.447359, "activity_lines": [ 121.041332, 115.983636, 116.374285, 117.903956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }