{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d694823-b350-4da9-a63e-60811fed233a", "symbol": "BAGFILMS", "name": "B.A.G. Films and Media Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.164, "architecture_energy": 64.281, "architecture_maturity": 20.802, "architecture_confidence": 91.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.94, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 13.01, "deceleration": 39.47, "rotation_down": 70.65, "downward_expansion": 91.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.435333, 4.535818, 4.736571, 4.814903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.32, "trend_reference": 4.994333, "distance_from_trend": -0.13502, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.528333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.426168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.138168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.221622, "excess_performance": -0.177913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13502, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.426168, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 480368, "relative_activity": 1.098942, "balance": 0.438848, "dry_up": 0.787891, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077991, "annualized_volatility": 0.496417, "from_high_reference": -0.46, "from_low_reference": 0.196676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.994333, "fair_value_reference": 7.528333, "structural_low": 3.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.022244, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.010858, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.267123, "worst_return": -0.20794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042553, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04613, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.677966, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.033898, "worst_return": -0.274637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.538013, "relative_strength": -17.808391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.888143, "energy": 67.010018, "activity_lines": [ 4.554, 4.676909, 4.823143, 4.907484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.42, "volume": 438779, "typical_volume": 449034.2, "trend": 5.056667, "fair_value": 7.535897, "relative_strength": -21.370635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.173983, "energy": 67.063617, "activity_lines": [ 4.505333, 4.610182, 4.783952, 4.86243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.32, "volume": 480368, "typical_volume": 437118.65, "trend": 4.994333, "fair_value": 7.528333, "relative_strength": -23.138168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.164367, "energy": 64.281453, "activity_lines": [ 4.435333, 4.535818, 4.736571, 4.814903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }