{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d6b6162-140a-4728-b4e7-580074bf64d1", "symbol": "000962", "name": "Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.737, "architecture_energy": 23.701, "architecture_maturity": 64.928, "architecture_confidence": 63.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.96, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 23.39, "deceleration": 76.13, "rotation_down": 60.57, "downward_expansion": 34.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.989334, 57.636989, 57.374507, 55.036639 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.18, "trend_reference": 51.373202, "distance_from_trend": 0.074101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.063558, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.500957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.495885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.426577, "excess_performance": 0.419177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.500957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.344959, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019245, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.426577, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.856206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169149684, "relative_activity": 1.637913, "balance": 0.856206, "dry_up": 1.318881, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214636, "annualized_volatility": 0.959354, "from_high_reference": -0.387909, "from_low_reference": 2.298248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.373202, "fair_value_reference": 22.063558, "structural_low": 38.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.053229, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.005877, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": -0.122014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042449, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.125617, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.506461, "worst_return": -0.051195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.146158, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.169154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.213045, "worst_return": -0.158703, "sufficient": 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"direction": 49.029287, "energy": 42.671753, "activity_lines": [ 65.458605, 64.648366, 58.876689, 55.227947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.380001, "volume": 128287488, "typical_volume": 99856121.0, "trend": 50.197202, "fair_value": 21.585099, "relative_strength": 25.834144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.287069, "energy": 15.630457, "activity_lines": [ 58.775333, 62.027445, 58.278136, 55.151031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.880001, "volume": 120094146, "typical_volume": 99651225.45, "trend": 50.635869, "fair_value": 21.78662, "relative_strength": 14.502072, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.85509, "energy": 22.339449, "activity_lines": [ 51.560667, 58.638851, 57.276727, 54.743469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.18, "volume": 169149684, "typical_volume": 103271470.1, "trend": 51.373202, "fair_value": 22.063558, "relative_strength": 34.495885, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.736509, "energy": 23.701088, "activity_lines": [ 50.989334, 57.636989, 57.374507, 55.036639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }