{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d6efb3c-f712-45bf-9b9b-0f71f88a1bf2", "symbol": "3297", "name": "Hunt Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.264, "architecture_energy": 60.472, "architecture_maturity": 83.34, "architecture_confidence": 86.228, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.32, "rotation_up": 12.17, "upward_expansion": 12.33, "deceleration": 39.47, "rotation_down": 66.24, "downward_expansion": 85.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.896667, 29.11, 30.199524, 31.471505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.9, "trend_reference": 33.483333, "distance_from_trend": -0.16675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.638461, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.446883, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257979, "excess_performance": -0.699351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.534469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221366, "relative_activity": 0.275283, "balance": 1.01737, "dry_up": 1.061828, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128067, "annualized_volatility": 0.422591, "from_high_reference": -0.623482, "from_low_reference": 0.177215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.483333, "fair_value_reference": 30.638461, "structural_low": 23.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.01567, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.019567, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.147368, "worst_return": -0.187302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052786, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015221, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.137143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.060174, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.725664, "worst_return": -0.248514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.249267, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.265078, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.860619, "worst_return": 0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099624, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029213, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.161031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.402778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.521814, "energy": 32.593498, "activity_lines": [ 30.989999, 31.138182, 31.649524, 32.902796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6, "volume": 659815, "typical_volume": 809146.1, "trend": 34.373333, "fair_value": 30.498397, "relative_strength": -56.590604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.619495, "energy": 54.182921, "activity_lines": [ 29.163333, 30.133636, 30.977619, 32.302258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.5, "volume": 449236, "typical_volume": 810588.7, "trend": 33.903333, "fair_value": 30.566667, "relative_strength": -53.490644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.235158, "energy": 53.417846, "activity_lines": [ 28.33, 29.568182, 30.548571, 31.858817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.9, "volume": 221366, "typical_volume": 804139.25, "trend": 33.483333, "fair_value": 30.638461, "relative_strength": -53.446883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.263926, "energy": 60.47249, "activity_lines": [ 27.896667, 29.11, 30.199524, 31.471505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }