{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d82f378-5f55-42fb-a5a8-21606228bb7a", "symbol": "IQQ5", "name": "iShares MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.92, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.489, "architecture_energy": 35.064, "architecture_maturity": 6.589, "architecture_confidence": 59.026, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.68, "rotation_up": 19.85, "upward_expansion": 14.3, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 55.1, "downward_expansion": 53.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.847733, 19.091564, 19.25527, 19.291858 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.656, "trend_reference": 19.279876, "distance_from_trend": -0.032359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.652676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.641479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015442, "excess_performance": -0.080082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.121405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17266, "relative_activity": 0.567167, "balance": 0.121405, "dry_up": 1.153501, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049906, "annualized_volatility": 0.229942, "from_high_reference": -0.107595, "from_low_reference": 0.270832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.279876, "fair_value_reference": 17.652676, "structural_low": 17.686001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004584, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.014512, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.263177, "worst_return": -0.095921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.153145, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.144785, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.407988, "worst_return": -0.10752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.215773, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.220926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330534, "worst_return": 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0.022881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03873, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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19.420889, 19.358657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.365999, "volume": 6639, "typical_volume": 32998.1, "trend": 19.170025, "fair_value": 17.62032, "relative_strength": 5.01275, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.3174, "energy": 10.103241, "activity_lines": [ 19.329866, 19.317854, 19.418825, 19.378579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.412001, "volume": 46762, "typical_volume": 31514.95, "trend": 19.242153, "fair_value": 17.638312, "relative_strength": -2.270101, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.699248, "energy": 26.725209, "activity_lines": [ 19.0124, 19.177673, 19.323963, 19.329675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.656, "volume": 17266, "typical_volume": 30442.55, "trend": 19.279876, "fair_value": 17.652676, "relative_strength": -3.641479, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.489409, "energy": 35.064494, "activity_lines": [ 18.847733, 19.091564, 19.25527, 19.291858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }