{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d831996-20bb-4513-973e-e69dcec75372", "symbol": "00689R", "name": "Cathay US Treasury 20+ YR Inv 1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.812, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.025, "architecture_energy": 89.503, "architecture_maturity": 9.518, "architecture_confidence": 62.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.33, "rotation_up": 85.6, "upward_expansion": 99.03, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.14, "downward_expansion": 21.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.759333, 22.457455, 22.247, 22.111613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.9, "trend_reference": 21.935333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.3975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.035298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051423, "excess_performance": -0.327889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014382, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104329, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.21802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 673000, "relative_activity": 1.316756, "balance": 4.21802, "dry_up": 1.272261, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013974, "annualized_volatility": 0.089343, "from_high_reference": -0.006938, "from_low_reference": 0.118164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.935333, "fair_value_reference": 21.3975, "structural_low": 20.83, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.013734, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.011302, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.098867, "worst_return": -0.087189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027376, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.022223, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166214, "worst_return": -0.09478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048592, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.009553, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174355, "worst_return": -0.049572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.012476, 21.922473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.77, "volume": 573000, "typical_volume": 519203.3, "trend": 21.854333, "fair_value": 21.356154, "relative_strength": -24.204868, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.089288, "energy": 82.556721, "activity_lines": [ 22.424667, 22.187454, 22.09081, 21.983978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.83, "volume": 1041034, "typical_volume": 503454.75, "trend": 21.897333, "fair_value": 21.378333, "relative_strength": -22.206107, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.860305, "energy": 87.293495, "activity_lines": [ 22.622, 22.320364, 22.167905, 22.046925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.9, "volume": 673000, "typical_volume": 511104.75, "trend": 21.935333, "fair_value": 21.3975, "relative_strength": -23.035298, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.024514, "energy": 89.503407, "activity_lines": [ 22.759333, 22.457455, 22.247, 22.111613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }