{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d851a6f-b0fd-4274-85e7-27d1345e993a", "symbol": "FPI", "name": "Fortune Parts Industry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.855, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.534, "architecture_energy": 23.889, "architecture_maturity": 21.514, "architecture_confidence": 52.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.68, "rotation_up": 47.81, "upward_expansion": 36.34, "deceleration": 43.51, "rotation_down": 14.13, "downward_expansion": 42.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.593333, 1.560182, 1.550059, 1.571277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.604915, "distance_from_trend": -0.003063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.793537, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.825289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09406, "excess_performance": -0.286385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020953, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.008687, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 445800, "relative_activity": 1.00046, "balance": 1.008687, "dry_up": 1.645216, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.205887, "from_high_reference": -0.113648, "from_low_reference": 0.09589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.604915, "fair_value_reference": 1.793537, "structural_low": 1.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.007541, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.45, "worst_return": -0.123529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034673, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.368853, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022934, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.044251, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.344263, "worst_return": -0.226852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181123, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.452422, "worst_return": -0.230892, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.064849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042945, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013245, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.235683, "volume": 3691200, "typical_volume": 1822200.0, "trend": 2.220823, "fair_value": 2.120548, "relative_strength": -6.022783, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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1.807885, "relative_strength": -19.775393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.427582, "energy": 45.229837, "activity_lines": [ 1.498667, 1.502, 1.538266, 1.573237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.57, "volume": 1174300, "typical_volume": 386915.0, "trend": 1.604598, "fair_value": 1.804178, "relative_strength": -16.603374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.970594, "energy": 29.258469, "activity_lines": [ 1.522667, 1.513091, 1.537918, 1.570961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.62, "volume": 920500, "typical_volume": 423045.0, "trend": 1.605257, "fair_value": 1.800903, "relative_strength": -13.92154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.867586, "energy": 17.178063, "activity_lines": [ 1.558667, 1.533091, 1.543173, 1.571955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 391800, "typical_volume": 431230.0, "trend": 1.605248, "fair_value": 1.797388, "relative_strength": -13.719065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.799716, "energy": 18.641704, "activity_lines": [ 1.58, 1.547455, 1.546476, 1.571616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 445800, "typical_volume": 445595.0, "trend": 1.604915, "fair_value": 1.793537, "relative_strength": -12.825289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.533558, "energy": 23.889161, "activity_lines": [ 1.593333, 1.560182, 1.550059, 1.571277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }