{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d85ec9a-b6d4-4ae8-b73c-dc4140b32ccb", "symbol": "GOVI", "name": "INVESCO EQUAL WEIGHT 0-30 YEAR TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.322, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.339, "architecture_energy": 68.111, "architecture_maturity": 5.532, "architecture_confidence": 81.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.12, "rotation_up": 9.65, "upward_expansion": 15.46, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 69.96, "downward_expansion": 88.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.509587, 26.686116, 26.795452, 26.896461 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.5179, "trend_reference": 27.035588, "distance_from_trend": -0.019148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.279715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.581674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027415, "excess_performance": -0.214869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.960652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641452, "relative_activity": 0.368606, "balance": 1.960652, "dry_up": 0.452678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013189, "annualized_volatility": 0.068466, "from_high_reference": -0.051767, "from_low_reference": 0.010544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.035588, "fair_value_reference": 26.279715, "structural_low": 26.2412, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.930682, "energy": 19.421957, "activity_lines": [ 26.966848, 26.938025, 26.962196, 27.043343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.773072, "volume": 752384, "typical_volume": 1911905.95, "trend": 27.109754, "fair_value": 26.263129, "relative_strength": -11.417045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.716544, "energy": 25.458413, "activity_lines": [ 26.889636, 26.914657, 26.936652, 27.020804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.48, "volume": 761598, "typical_volume": 1802621.75, "trend": 27.085533, "fair_value": 26.266892, "relative_strength": -10.65652, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.908765, "energy": 58.622498, "activity_lines": [ 26.729196, 26.842929, 26.888804, 26.980174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.33, "volume": 995582, "typical_volume": 1754834.45, "trend": 27.059921, "fair_value": 26.271949, "relative_strength": -11.252931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.975731, "energy": 71.648759, "activity_lines": [ 26.557527, 26.744068, 26.831409, 26.93143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5179, "volume": 641452, "typical_volume": 1740209.35, "trend": 27.035588, "fair_value": 26.279715, "relative_strength": -14.581674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.339489, "energy": 68.111082, "activity_lines": [ 26.509587, 26.686116, 26.795452, 26.896461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }