{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d8a5b20-24e6-4098-9f87-554ffc0d8158", "symbol": "CQR", "name": "Charter Hall Retail REIT", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.262, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.818, "architecture_energy": 70.6, "architecture_maturity": 31.655, "architecture_confidence": 78.183, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.48, "rotation_up": 66.92, "upward_expansion": 83.05, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 10.21, "downward_expansion": 14.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.038667, 3.969884, 3.89777, 3.87251 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.23, "trend_reference": 3.860587, "distance_from_trend": 0.095688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.35916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.758073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137864, "excess_performance": 0.074158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027581, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.971969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5210085, "relative_activity": 0.9584, "balance": 1.971969, "dry_up": 1.028656, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037528, "annualized_volatility": 0.184295, "from_high_reference": -0.002358, "from_low_reference": 0.207328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.860587, "fair_value_reference": 3.35916, "structural_low": 3.503604, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.008876, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008406, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.127321, "worst_return": -0.082927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011239, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.027278, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.139053, "worst_return": -0.065163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013797, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.246019, "worst_return": -0.05611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240967, "worst_return": -0.036689, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013672, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080597, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10733, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.851964, "volume": 9366060, "typical_volume": 5497908.3, "trend": 3.043404, "fair_value": 2.900836, "relative_strength": -6.734444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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5573699.95, "trend": 3.852683, "fair_value": 3.351174, "relative_strength": 1.14928, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.362372, "energy": 33.139058, "activity_lines": [ 3.931333, 3.902669, 3.859374, 3.848167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.23, "volume": 5210085, "typical_volume": 5436230.65, "trend": 3.860587, "fair_value": 3.35916, "relative_strength": 2.758073, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.818124, "energy": 70.599688, "activity_lines": [ 4.038667, 3.969884, 3.89777, 3.87251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }