{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d8d2d58-3705-4570-a61a-2e7f1825b68e", "symbol": "ALY", "name": "Alchemy Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.073, "architecture_energy": 28.503, "architecture_maturity": 74.03, "architecture_confidence": 63.091, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.36, "rotation_up": 23.56, "upward_expansion": 14.31, "deceleration": 65.72, "rotation_down": 40.33, "downward_expansion": 64.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.007182, 0.00746, 0.007906 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.008633, "distance_from_trend": -0.189189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007997, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.83514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.416667, "excess_performance": -0.480372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041622, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.416667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1345106, "relative_activity": 0.754014, "balance": 0.578412, "dry_up": 0.798811, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148352, "annualized_volatility": 0.56926, "from_high_reference": -0.533333, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008633, "fair_value_reference": 0.007997, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026457, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.129687, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.11902, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.119789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.008, "volume": 79831, "typical_volume": 2946640.95, "trend": 0.009083, "fair_value": 0.008189, "relative_strength": -6.925522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.264214, "energy": 52.035563, "activity_lines": [ 0.007133, 0.007336, 0.007762, 0.008334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.008, "volume": 171560, "typical_volume": 2773172.75, "trend": 0.008983, "fair_value": 0.008144, "relative_strength": -7.444349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.13591, "energy": 32.273701, "activity_lines": [ 0.007467, 0.007418, 0.007738, 0.008265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 1618431, "typical_volume": 2480052.65, "trend": 0.00885, "fair_value": 0.008093, "relative_strength": -19.138388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.810832, "energy": 26.16872, "activity_lines": [ 0.0074, 0.007318, 0.007631, 0.008137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2564987, "typical_volume": 2102720.45, "trend": 0.008717, "fair_value": 0.008048, "relative_strength": -21.1144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.041614, "energy": 23.80774, "activity_lines": [ 0.007333, 0.007236, 0.007538, 0.008017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 1345106, "typical_volume": 1783926.8, "trend": 0.008633, "fair_value": 0.007997, "relative_strength": -23.83514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.072793, "energy": 28.503185, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.007182, 0.00746, 0.007906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }