{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d903f8b-d8d2-412f-8a7c-f1f3b3f05582", "symbol": "MATCH", "name": "Matching Maximize Solution Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.24, "architecture_energy": 32.609, "architecture_maturity": 8.664, "architecture_confidence": 65.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.53, "rotation_up": 24.28, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 52.36, "downward_expansion": 55.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.854667, 0.866, 0.879857, 0.892796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.84, "trend_reference": 0.892, "distance_from_trend": -0.058296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.224231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.955238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.115402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146100, "relative_activity": 2.966497, "balance": 0.473323, "dry_up": 2.769036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088828, "annualized_volatility": 0.466221, "from_high_reference": -0.348837, "from_low_reference": 0.527273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.892, "fair_value_reference": 1.224231, "structural_low": 0.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.005676, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.141026, "worst_return": -0.211111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017933, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.024764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.068966, "worst_return": -0.165138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.143005, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081631, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126126, "worst_return": -0.229167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164384, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072581, "active": 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"typical_volume": 35735.0, "trend": 0.885333, "fair_value": 1.238462, "relative_strength": -27.463841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.445459, "energy": 15.74014, "activity_lines": [ 0.877333, 0.882, 0.896381, 0.899849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.85, "volume": 136400, "typical_volume": 42410.0, "trend": 0.886333, "fair_value": 1.233974, "relative_strength": -28.325452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.656161, "energy": 25.570627, "activity_lines": [ 0.868, 0.876364, 0.890619, 0.89757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.86, "volume": 15400, "typical_volume": 42115.0, "trend": 0.887667, "fair_value": 1.229167, "relative_strength": -25.679212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.924685, "energy": 24.60721, "activity_lines": [ 0.864, 0.873273, 0.886, 0.895871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.84, "volume": 146100, "typical_volume": 49250.0, "trend": 0.892, "fair_value": 1.224231, "relative_strength": -25.955238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.240429, "energy": 32.608619, "activity_lines": [ 0.854667, 0.866, 0.879857, 0.892796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }