{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d90d4e7-dcc8-4d71-8b3d-66a85aa5226f", "symbol": "CE", "name": "Celanese Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.055, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.912, "architecture_energy": 77.091, "architecture_maturity": 23.244, "architecture_confidence": 79.744, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.1, "rotation_up": 14.71, "upward_expansion": 16.76, "deceleration": 42.01, "rotation_down": 71.33, "downward_expansion": 90.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 842.188184, 861.710686, 925.620077, 954.31898 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 847.0, "trend_reference": 957.657296, "distance_from_trend": -0.11555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1417.242073, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.658981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1087, "excess_performance": 0.163367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11555, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.622835, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.622835, "dry_up": 0.036188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034897, "annualized_volatility": 0.69649, "from_high_reference": -0.269828, "from_low_reference": 0.139269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 957.657296, "fair_value_reference": 1417.242073, "structural_low": 763.957886, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.081146, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068609, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.081146, "worst_return": -0.081146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.243202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134343, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.319635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 2.9e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081113, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1980.682739, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1980.682739, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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891.62485, 969.410455, 974.667008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 846.970032, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 208.6, "trend": 952.121155, "fair_value": 1431.776467, "relative_strength": -7.049496, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.359145, "energy": 79.499608, "activity_lines": [ 850.729891, 877.456193, 954.565426, 968.061586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 847.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 207.25, "trend": 954.889225, "fair_value": 1424.50927, "relative_strength": -7.21682, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.211804, "energy": 58.833013, "activity_lines": [ 843.966793, 868.984439, 939.728527, 961.279576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 847.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 207.25, "trend": 957.657296, "fair_value": 1417.242073, "relative_strength": -6.658981, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.912008, "energy": 77.091053, "activity_lines": [ 842.188184, 861.710686, 925.620077, 954.31898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }