{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d984009-114f-491f-a511-3e4018b5578a", "symbol": "YOC", "name": "YOC AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.191, "architecture_energy": 74.277, "architecture_maturity": 19.043, "architecture_confidence": 83.032, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.0, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 16.7, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 75.52, "downward_expansion": 92.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.668, 5.913818, 6.255048, 6.356366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.78, "trend_reference": 6.705667, "distance_from_trend": -0.138042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.410385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.568991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.821053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174286, "excess_performance": -0.238925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.568991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091153, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1492, "relative_activity": 0.19781, "balance": 0.93243, "dry_up": 0.730782, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081182, "annualized_volatility": 0.677281, "from_high_reference": -0.633016, "from_low_reference": 0.151394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.705667, "fair_value_reference": 13.410385, "structural_low": 5.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.034346, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.34902, "worst_return": -0.342723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0272, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.053896, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.358852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011978, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.172201, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.704918, "worst_return": -0.326316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.524138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030201, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.8, "volume": 11530, "typical_volume": 5971.95, "trend": 12.693333, "fair_value": 11.268269, "relative_strength": -14.160278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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8019, "typical_volume": 8324.3, "trend": 7.360333, "fair_value": 13.571538, "relative_strength": -42.494458, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.066082, "energy": 61.557247, "activity_lines": [ 6.237333, 6.475273, 6.533333, 6.727161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.96, "volume": 5048, "typical_volume": 8426.25, "trend": 7.214, "fair_value": 13.531859, "relative_strength": -40.168691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.436545, "energy": 73.947809, "activity_lines": [ 6.084, 6.350909, 6.481714, 6.636817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.78, "volume": 4466, "typical_volume": 8360.8, "trend": 7.065, "fair_value": 13.492308, "relative_strength": -41.385979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.704968, "energy": 79.15975, "activity_lines": [ 5.942667, 6.217455, 6.417429, 6.544301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.24, "volume": 11042, "typical_volume": 8499.9, "trend": 6.868, "fair_value": 13.449295, "relative_strength": -46.844018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.021564, "energy": 86.766772, "activity_lines": [ 5.682667, 6.002182, 6.307048, 6.426559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.78, "volume": 1492, "typical_volume": 7542.6, "trend": 6.705667, "fair_value": 13.410385, "relative_strength": -41.821053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.191057, "energy": 74.277158, "activity_lines": [ 5.668, 5.913818, 6.255048, 6.356366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }