{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d9925ec-ea09-4c7d-acf3-23d53e78419f", "symbol": "CRI", "name": "Compagnie Chargeurs Invest", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.729, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.636, "architecture_energy": 55.526, "architecture_maturity": 11.167, "architecture_confidence": 65.19, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.12, "rotation_up": 64.5, "upward_expansion": 47.91, "deceleration": 21.78, "rotation_down": 14.24, "downward_expansion": 31.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.602, 8.333053, 7.887249, 8.078344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.4, "trend_reference": 8.524393, "distance_from_trend": -0.014593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.210888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177349, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.091159, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171598, "excess_performance": -0.224909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146525, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148134, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.501983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38921, "relative_activity": 0.897874, "balance": 1.501983, "dry_up": 0.821336, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063223, "annualized_volatility": 0.479429, "from_high_reference": -0.280822, "from_low_reference": 0.246628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.524393, "fair_value_reference": 10.210888, "structural_low": 6.738177, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029016, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007978, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022603, "worst_return": -0.088136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0249, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.079228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025641, "worst_return": -0.116861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025213, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050277, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.008547, "worst_return": -0.242367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033457, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104274, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-47.578225, "energy": 39.66182, "activity_lines": [ 7.392529, 7.200242, 7.514196, 8.059116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.1, "volume": 287836, "typical_volume": 42416.75, "trend": 8.715726, "fair_value": 10.266481, "relative_strength": -7.601239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.838579, "energy": 22.411103, "activity_lines": [ 8.020782, 7.563844, 7.614425, 8.08208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.05, "volume": 19464, "typical_volume": 42268.45, "trend": 8.687393, "fair_value": 10.254103, "relative_strength": -7.64383, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.706015, "energy": 40.411754, "activity_lines": [ 8.483635, 7.878386, 7.713988, 8.103646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.69, "volume": 56851, "typical_volume": 43655.65, "trend": 8.643726, "fair_value": 10.238657, "relative_strength": -11.008937, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.5892, "energy": 47.682311, "activity_lines": [ 8.68, 8.092281, 7.783027, 8.103814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.44, "volume": 27177, "typical_volume": 43763.15, "trend": 8.591059, "fair_value": 10.224268, "relative_strength": -14.290882, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.685719, "energy": 46.328661, "activity_lines": [ 8.664, 8.229842, 7.8344, 8.090671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.4, "volume": 38921, "typical_volume": 43347.95, "trend": 8.524393, "fair_value": 10.210888, "relative_strength": -16.091159, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.636111, "energy": 55.525649, "activity_lines": [ 8.602, 8.333053, 7.887249, 8.078344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }