{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d99500a-f8a9-427b-8143-89e0473c61f6", "symbol": "DECO", "name": "SPDR GALAXY DIGITAL ASSET ECOSYSTEM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.008, "architecture_energy": 26.41, "architecture_maturity": 74.23, "architecture_confidence": 94.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.48, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 55.84, "deceleration": 93.95, "rotation_down": 27.83, "downward_expansion": 21.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.90422, 75.360276, 73.121454, 67.920767 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 73.5558, "trend_reference": 61.791853, "distance_from_trend": 0.19038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.305386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.6602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.239176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.527372, "excess_performance": 0.339919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19038, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.6602, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.172392, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.527372, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.420067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5027, "relative_activity": 0.759572, "balance": 1.420067, "dry_up": 0.809246, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080687, "annualized_volatility": 0.411471, "from_high_reference": -0.132034, "from_low_reference": 1.013947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.791853, "fair_value_reference": 44.305386, "structural_low": 41.6855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 25.722853, "volume": 979, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.981164, "energy": 63.304734, "activity_lines": [ 77.9677, 77.12594, 69.600036, 64.310507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.1478, "volume": 5377, "typical_volume": 6672.6, "trend": 59.298319, "fair_value": 43.388709, "relative_strength": 24.496574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.135057, "energy": 50.07775, "activity_lines": [ 76.114027, 76.738551, 70.60854, 65.259427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.0024, "volume": 5303, "typical_volume": 6436.6, "trend": 60.2331, "fair_value": 43.711298, "relative_strength": 28.52953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.132453, "energy": 39.596516, "activity_lines": [ 75.241907, 76.568122, 71.680037, 66.272593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.2756, "volume": 5716, "typical_volume": 6554.65, "trend": 61.051607, "fair_value": 44.009927, "relative_strength": 23.729857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.652397, "energy": 31.406894, "activity_lines": [ 74.30322, 75.958811, 72.449457, 67.114045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.5558, "volume": 5027, "typical_volume": 6618.2, "trend": 61.791853, "fair_value": 44.305386, "relative_strength": 17.239176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.007984, "energy": 26.410093, "activity_lines": [ 73.90422, 75.360276, 73.121454, 67.920767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }