{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3d9b05f7-8087-42d8-af1c-24919ab67fc0",
    "symbol": "ALIMR",
    "name": "Immersion SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 70.239,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.996,
    "architecture_energy": 46.133,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.066,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.41,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.03,
        "rotation_up": 17.07,
        "upward_expansion": 10.5,
        "deceleration": 38.3,
        "rotation_down": 55.68,
        "downward_expansion": 79.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.328,
        2.383273,
        2.401048,
        2.434624
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 2.2,
    "trend_reference": 2.516667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.125828,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.974103,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11443,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.587321,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.098361,
    "excess_performance": -0.151672,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.125828,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045996,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11443,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026646,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095873,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196343,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098361,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.965157,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 85,
      "relative_activity": 0.046655,
      "balance": 1.965157,
      "dry_up": 0.789698,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.097203,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.577133,
      "from_high_reference": -0.367816,
      "from_low_reference": 0.788618
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.516667,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.974103,
      "structural_low": 1.94,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.009782,
        "positive_rate": 0.272727,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.272727,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02965,
        "regime_survival": 0.681818,
        "best_return": 0.09434,
        "worst_return": -0.189655,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.124223,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.156305,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.484615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.133663,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.118408,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 2.313953,
        "worst_return": -0.484615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.137478,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.071009,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 1.906977,
        "worst_return": -0.52,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.089109,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.065217,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.139175,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.02994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.26776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.292208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.190955,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.227778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.177143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.133333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.330275,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.095652,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.126984,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 2.72,
        "volume": 22,
        "typical_volume": 818.65,
        "trend": 3.238667,
        "fair_value": 3.434872,
        "relative_strength": -31.663895,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 34.698491,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      {
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        "date": "2023-09-15",
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        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "trend": 2.352667,
        "fair_value": 2.015641,
        "relative_strength": 10.047027,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.166382,
        "energy": 11.650331,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.556,
          2.545818,
          2.56,
          2.503806
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 2.32,
        "volume": 5985,
        "typical_volume": 2365.4,
        "trend": 2.37,
        "fair_value": 2.010641,
        "relative_strength": 12.533754,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.93864,
        "energy": 5.722155,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.488,
          2.504727,
          2.535333,
          2.501699
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 2.26,
        "volume": 1146,
        "typical_volume": 2268.05,
        "trend": 2.385333,
        "fair_value": 2.004744,
        "relative_strength": 6.769927,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.007579,
        "energy": 9.741978,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.397333,
          2.454182,
          2.504762,
          2.494602
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 2.32,
        "volume": 624,
        "typical_volume": 2163.65,
        "trend": 2.406,
        "fair_value": 1.999231,
        "relative_strength": 8.1257,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.610275,
        "energy": 24.379942,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.34,
          2.420727,
          2.481048,
          2.490387
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 2.3,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1920.85,
        "trend": 2.426,
        "fair_value": 1.993846,
        "relative_strength": 6.056349,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.411179,
        "energy": 35.654276,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.3,
          2.393091,
          2.454857,
          2.483548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 2.36,
        "volume": 432,
        "typical_volume": 1913.55,
        "trend": 2.448,
        "fair_value": 1.989103,
        "relative_strength": 6.256588,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.766527,
        "energy": 36.592681,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.32,
          2.380727,
          2.439524,
          2.47929
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 2.52,
        "volume": 275,
        "typical_volume": 1912.45,
        "trend": 2.485667,
        "fair_value": 1.986282,
        "relative_strength": 11.735329,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.446729,
        "energy": 23.224574,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.389333,
          2.399273,
          2.44219,
          2.483935
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 2.52,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1822.25,
        "trend": 2.511333,
        "fair_value": 1.983205,
        "relative_strength": 11.581527,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.622501,
        "energy": 13.101461,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.445333,
          2.413455,
          2.447619,
          2.486151
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 2.48,
        "volume": 1001,
        "typical_volume": 1846.9,
        "trend": 2.525333,
        "fair_value": 1.983718,
        "relative_strength": 7.518722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.645152,
        "energy": 15.476758,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.470667,
          2.419273,
          2.448857,
          2.484129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 2.42,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 1791.45,
        "trend": 2.506,
        "fair_value": 1.980641,
        "relative_strength": 6.301407,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.112768,
        "energy": 15.480598,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.465333,
          2.417818,
          2.444476,
          2.477333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 2.4,
        "volume": 62,
        "typical_volume": 1724.7,
        "trend": 2.516,
        "fair_value": 1.979872,
        "relative_strength": 4.716323,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.190014,
        "energy": 13.192957,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.445333,
          2.421455,
          2.439048,
          2.470495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2.5,
        "volume": 2836,
        "typical_volume": 1835.6,
        "trend": 2.523333,
        "fair_value": 1.979103,
        "relative_strength": 7.835004,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.822679,
        "energy": 9.029278,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.456,
          2.441455,
          2.442095,
          2.469462
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.3,
        "volume": 2772,
        "typical_volume": 1898.4,
        "trend": 2.516667,
        "fair_value": 1.978077,
        "relative_strength": -2.804281,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.210117,
        "energy": 21.894038,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.401333,
          2.421818,
          2.425619,
          2.455054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.2,
        "volume": 85,
        "typical_volume": 1821.9,
        "trend": 2.516667,
        "fair_value": 1.974103,
        "relative_strength": -9.587321,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.996201,
        "energy": 46.132729,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.328,
          2.383273,
          2.401048,
          2.434624
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}