{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3da0e003-40eb-4639-8e54-34d82b99e433", "symbol": "CELH", "name": "Celsius Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.612, "architecture_energy": 56.313, "architecture_maturity": 78.337, "architecture_confidence": 91.1, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.97, "rotation_up": 20.64, "upward_expansion": 8.05, "deceleration": 54.69, "rotation_down": 61.56, "downward_expansion": 81.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 489.579997, 506.497087, 524.301665, 568.611159 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 472.73999, "trend_reference": 648.712998, "distance_from_trend": -0.271265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 736.613181, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.539786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.45348, "excess_performance": -0.398813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128569, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081902, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.10184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40449, "relative_activity": 3.453726, "balance": 0.10184, "dry_up": 2.211336, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113247, "annualized_volatility": 0.580468, "from_high_reference": -0.611198, "from_low_reference": 0.161523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 648.712998, "fair_value_reference": 736.613181, "structural_low": 407.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092695, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.112858, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.070496, "worst_return": -0.180096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.238373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243164, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.111667, "worst_return": -0.365079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.435979, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.442541, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.435979, "worst_return": -0.435979, "sufficient": false }, { 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-60.066873, "energy": 51.941171, "activity_lines": [ 504.973999, 515.387271, 532.537046, 580.97987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 472.73999, "volume": 40449, "typical_volume": 11711.7, "trend": 648.712998, "fair_value": 736.613181, "relative_strength": -41.539786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.611696, "energy": 56.312903, "activity_lines": [ 489.579997, 506.497087, 524.301665, 568.611159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }