{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dabdfb6-9311-46e1-83da-c5713c0a58fd", "symbol": "MOD", "name": "Modine Manufacturing Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 77.336, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.35, "architecture_energy": 42.92, "architecture_maturity": 42.886, "architecture_confidence": 76.736, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.85, "rotation_up": 14.94, "upward_expansion": 21.65, "deceleration": 53.15, "rotation_down": 64.49, "downward_expansion": 48.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.146667, 230.493273, 245.684238, 241.566882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 195.6, "trend_reference": 229.848333, "distance_from_trend": -0.149004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.4725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.558907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.331967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093269, "excess_performance": -0.218894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172197, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.558907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.98295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.656401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359261, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6494375, "relative_activity": 0.981263, "balance": 0.359261, "dry_up": 1.220891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208684, "annualized_volatility": 0.557141, "from_high_reference": -0.394896, "from_low_reference": 0.759309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 229.848333, "fair_value_reference": 125.4725, "structural_low": 170.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.132844, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.074653, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.373261, "worst_return": -0.204587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.398604, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.331793, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.609375, "worst_return": -0.331998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.801304, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.654391, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.477971, "worst_return": -0.39439, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 252.709333, 261.992909, 257.008952, 243.253011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 229.34, "volume": 5903747, "typical_volume": 6106569.9, "trend": 222.02, "fair_value": 122.192372, "relative_strength": 12.542844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.283222, "energy": 15.184775, "activity_lines": [ 242.173333, 255.237636, 255.510143, 243.925656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 241.79, "volume": 4636448, "typical_volume": 6005934.3, "trend": 225.491333, "fair_value": 123.511538, "relative_strength": 18.006279, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.257813, "energy": 17.533945, "activity_lines": [ 238.798, 251.539818, 255.187095, 245.20114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.06, "volume": 15286732, "typical_volume": 6534393.4, "trend": 227.499667, "fair_value": 124.515128, "relative_strength": -3.283025, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.723266, "energy": 26.540125, "activity_lines": [ 225.551333, 240.972364, 250.725476, 243.624925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 195.6, "volume": 6494375, "typical_volume": 6618385.1, "trend": 229.848333, "fair_value": 125.4725, "relative_strength": -9.331967, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.350124, "energy": 42.92048, "activity_lines": [ 214.146667, 230.493273, 245.684238, 241.566882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }