{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dad7a22-25c5-48b4-9d4c-b92ca022959e", "symbol": "601995", "name": "China International Capital Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.159, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.717, "architecture_energy": 25.693, "architecture_maturity": 28.951, "architecture_confidence": 54.715, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.27, "rotation_up": 39.53, "upward_expansion": 66.74, "deceleration": 72.47, "rotation_down": 21.02, "downward_expansion": 7.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.296001, 35.245819, 34.633715, 34.40314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.880001, "trend_reference": 34.323667, "distance_from_trend": 0.016208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.516511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010531, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.391931, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010136, "excess_performance": 0.05334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107336, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.752848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113778188, "relative_activity": 1.294876, "balance": 0.752848, "dry_up": 1.750282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054318, "annualized_volatility": 0.150941, "from_high_reference": -0.121623, "from_low_reference": 0.1126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.323667, "fair_value_reference": 34.516511, "structural_low": 31.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015579, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.032764, "worst_return": -0.115875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051874, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107357, "worst_return": -0.204538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090301, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.03053, "worst_return": -0.21715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.959478, "energy": 47.980095, "activity_lines": [ 35.511333, 34.611091, 34.146286, 34.154368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.380001, "volume": 238131533, "typical_volume": 83557085.5, "trend": 34.344314, "fair_value": 34.524157, "relative_strength": 5.047099, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.656529, "energy": 49.027446, "activity_lines": [ 35.682667, 34.824728, 34.282857, 34.222429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.610001, "volume": 158902802, "typical_volume": 85432696.3, "trend": 34.337, "fair_value": 34.526767, "relative_strength": 4.536326, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.719927, "energy": 51.758504, "activity_lines": [ 35.76, 35.060728, 34.437858, 34.304086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.32, "volume": 104362604, "typical_volume": 87121452.55, "trend": 34.327667, "fair_value": 34.522168, "relative_strength": 3.437198, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.504311, "energy": 39.205803, "activity_lines": [ 35.593334, 35.208182, 34.559477, 34.367506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.880001, "volume": 113778188, "typical_volume": 87868005.05, "trend": 34.323667, "fair_value": 34.516511, "relative_strength": -0.391931, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.717237, "energy": 25.693487, "activity_lines": [ 35.296001, 35.245819, 34.633715, 34.40314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }