{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3daee369-b074-459b-93ed-84b5b346d019", "symbol": "603219", "name": "Ningbo Fujia Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.777, "architecture_energy": 59.442, "architecture_maturity": 23.942, "architecture_confidence": 86.712, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.68, "rotation_up": 14.91, "upward_expansion": 14.32, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 65.95, "downward_expansion": 85.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.685333, 14.170909, 15.083378, 15.623842 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.75, "trend_reference": 16.375634, "distance_from_trend": -0.099272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.84562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.022551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207918, "excess_performance": -0.164714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21890227, "relative_activity": 0.863308, "balance": 0.788621, "dry_up": 0.932444, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1274, "annualized_volatility": 0.533407, "from_high_reference": -0.377531, "from_low_reference": 0.268272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.375634, "fair_value_reference": 14.84562, "structural_low": 11.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0703, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.018061, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196888, "worst_return": -0.153446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101297, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.157177, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.65455, "worst_return": 0.027612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.145057, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169914, "worst_return": 0.051493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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16.261798, 16.57226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.83, "volume": 27048693, "typical_volume": 24955750.2, "trend": 16.738913, "fair_value": 14.851213, "relative_strength": -13.852581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.045033, "energy": 45.025823, "activity_lines": [ 15.274667, 15.62824, 16.096251, 16.446374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.02, "volume": 23794584, "typical_volume": 25497231.15, "trend": 16.644564, "fair_value": 14.84673, "relative_strength": -19.459755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.800251, "energy": 54.331982, "activity_lines": [ 14.554667, 15.06727, 15.774386, 16.206444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.74, "volume": 27964986, "typical_volume": 25832767.45, "trend": 16.542211, "fair_value": 14.840945, "relative_strength": -21.936181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.432051, "energy": 50.740958, "activity_lines": [ 13.861333, 14.526428, 15.449586, 15.954537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.11, "volume": 20923164, "typical_volume": 25821337.7, "trend": 16.443552, "fair_value": 14.836915, "relative_strength": -19.753745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.27818, "energy": 71.161531, "activity_lines": [ 13.467333, 14.153821, 15.179583, 15.733104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.75, "volume": 21890227, "typical_volume": 25356216.15, "trend": 16.375634, "fair_value": 14.84562, "relative_strength": -12.022551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.776522, "energy": 59.442195, "activity_lines": [ 13.685333, 14.170909, 15.083378, 15.623842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }