{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3daefd1b-a178-4c58-a207-0c7ef04df3e1", "symbol": "DEEF", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS FTSE DEV EX US MULTIFACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.592, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.284, "architecture_energy": 72.825, "architecture_maturity": 36.28, "architecture_confidence": 71.99, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 74.13, "upward_expansion": 90.24, "deceleration": 42.48, "rotation_down": 12.33, "downward_expansion": 14.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.740947, 39.382992, 39.184061, 38.931049 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.6699, "trend_reference": 38.604418, "distance_from_trend": 0.053504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.499197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.212272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061613, "excess_performance": -0.064011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352779, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3046, "relative_activity": 0.817971, "balance": 1.352779, "dry_up": 0.674839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018963, "annualized_volatility": 0.168822, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.232863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.604418, "fair_value_reference": 30.499197, "structural_low": 36.192411, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.014081, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.003747, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.092825, "worst_return": -0.094248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031067, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.036849, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.108398, "worst_return": -0.106923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052907, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.071307, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.14817, "worst_return": -0.050378, "sufficient": true }, { 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19.229687, "activity_lines": [ 38.845724, 38.93734, 38.7479, 38.512199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.1166, "volume": 1303, "typical_volume": 5060.55, "trend": 38.068513, "fair_value": 30.117696, "relative_strength": -2.61835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.072868, "energy": 21.417552, "activity_lines": [ 38.948201, 38.959388, 38.797488, 38.588966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.9749, "volume": 2726, "typical_volume": 4989.9, "trend": 38.194697, "fair_value": 30.208055, "relative_strength": -1.468004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.138502, "energy": 18.197164, "activity_lines": [ 38.949, 38.950526, 38.837656, 38.647443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.0677, "volume": 1346, "typical_volume": 4212.8, "trend": 38.315109, "fair_value": 30.297463, "relative_strength": -0.673398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.303478, "energy": 26.492044, "activity_lines": [ 38.995093, 38.969277, 38.89355, 38.703766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.6238, "volume": 2934, "typical_volume": 3791.75, "trend": 38.455705, "fair_value": 30.394759, "relative_strength": -0.373713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.187255, "energy": 42.73642, "activity_lines": [ 39.23104, 39.085828, 38.995796, 38.788197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.6699, "volume": 3046, "typical_volume": 3723.85, "trend": 38.604418, "fair_value": 30.499197, "relative_strength": -1.212272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.283643, "energy": 72.824944, "activity_lines": [ 39.740947, 39.382992, 39.184061, 38.931049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }