{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3db0597d-aeee-4466-b79e-8b26bcaf6f81", "symbol": "8160", "name": "Arabia Insurance Cooperative Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.716, "architecture_energy": 30.549, "architecture_maturity": 13.486, "architecture_confidence": 88.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.99, "rotation_up": 18.69, "upward_expansion": 7.38, "deceleration": 41.76, "rotation_down": 50.51, "downward_expansion": 71.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.227333, 8.313818, 8.329476, 8.352538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.469, "distance_from_trend": -0.043571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.255513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.339073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.939806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.10989, "excess_performance": -0.078061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.339073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 640203, "relative_activity": 1.368228, "balance": 0.806252, "dry_up": 1.181309, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049858, "annualized_volatility": 0.171426, "from_high_reference": -0.295039, "from_low_reference": 0.017588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.469, "fair_value_reference": 12.255513, "structural_low": 7.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010782, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029578, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.087928, "worst_return": -0.059603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032132, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152603, "worst_return": -0.174834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096866, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074056, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.260323, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.179452, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445242, "worst_return": -0.690671, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.308777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043684, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 13.62, "volume": 1444478, "typical_volume": 1457473.0, "trend": 11.862, "fair_value": 20.513407, "relative_strength": 13.153771, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.775111, "energy": 52.352879, "activity_lines": [ 13.733333, 13.526545, 12.994476, 12.505849 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.76, "volume": 4503243, "typical_volume": 1681827.0, "trend": 11.987333, "fair_value": 20.52177, "relative_strength": 13.417899, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.254559, "energy": 46.449887, "activity_lines": [ 13.704, 13.602909, 13.121905, 12.628301 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.62, "volume": 2199064, "typical_volume": 1791220.4, "trend": 12.106, "fair_value": 20.531324, "relative_strength": 11.716073, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.604508, "energy": 43.829178, "activity_lines": [ 13.670667, 13.640727, 13.22181, 12.733634 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 13.54, "volume": 2283816, "typical_volume": 1905298.5, "trend": 12.222667, "fair_value": 20.539902, "relative_strength": 11.246547, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"direction": -56.395543, "energy": 34.032456, "activity_lines": [ 8.246, 8.279818, 8.300429, 8.444731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.82, "volume": 2916790, "typical_volume": 382153.1, "trend": 8.706667, "fair_value": 12.427949, "relative_strength": -6.701762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.741016, "energy": 3.34144, "activity_lines": [ 8.43, 8.374727, 8.345, 8.449699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.47, "volume": 891040, "typical_volume": 404528.0, "trend": 8.647333, "fair_value": 12.400449, "relative_strength": -9.775773, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.004623, "energy": 10.473078, "activity_lines": [ 8.460667, 8.396182, 8.357095, 8.43443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.41, "volume": 903190, "typical_volume": 429638.45, "trend": 8.592667, "fair_value": 12.362051, "relative_strength": -9.17125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.834199, "energy": 12.747041, "activity_lines": [ 8.465333, 8.403273, 8.36481, 8.419118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.38, "volume": 349542, "typical_volume": 433707.85, "trend": 8.54, "fair_value": 12.32641, "relative_strength": -9.620425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.62595, "energy": 13.455909, "activity_lines": [ 8.452667, 8.405273, 8.370571, 8.405398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.12, "volume": 318034, "typical_volume": 443523.1, "trend": 8.499333, "fair_value": 12.291923, "relative_strength": -10.128861, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.966134, "energy": 18.775827, "activity_lines": [ 8.340667, 8.36, 8.35119, 8.378301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 640203, "typical_volume": 467906.65, "trend": 8.469, "fair_value": 12.255513, "relative_strength": -11.939806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.715854, "energy": 30.548645, "activity_lines": [ 8.227333, 8.313818, 8.329476, 8.352538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }