{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3db4e7e6-8e73-4875-969e-3885ad014e9f", "symbol": "FNS", "name": "FNS Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.421, "architecture_energy": 16.497, "architecture_maturity": 38.005, "architecture_confidence": 62.895, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.24, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 22.05, "deceleration": 40.98, "rotation_down": 31.01, "downward_expansion": 53.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.586, 0.587091, 0.557857, 0.569097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.608, "distance_from_trend": -0.128289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.910321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.72256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.906139, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.231884, "excess_performance": -0.424209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.72256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 273800, "relative_activity": 0.872586, "balance": 0.633519, "dry_up": 1.448626, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12627, "annualized_volatility": 0.887104, "from_high_reference": -0.554622, "from_low_reference": 0.261905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.608, "fair_value_reference": 1.910321, "structural_low": 0.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.025179, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.004228, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.104167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040698, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029565, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.168317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027426, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.015647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024242, "worst_return": -0.485149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.092031, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095755, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.021312, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.040825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071006, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.665584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148515, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.24, "volume": 278200, "typical_volume": 842445.0, "trend": 3.346085, "fair_value": 3.336454, "relative_strength": 2.249803, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after 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"2026-06-26", "close": 0.53, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 931935.0, "trend": 0.656, "fair_value": 2.014038, "relative_strength": -40.980352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.561262, "energy": 35.634155, "activity_lines": [ 0.526667, 0.514545, 0.529571, 0.581075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.57, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 899165.0, "trend": 0.646333, "fair_value": 1.996282, "relative_strength": -38.232986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.019302, "energy": 26.245591, "activity_lines": [ 0.543333, 0.525636, 0.528762, 0.575527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.7, "volume": 608000, "typical_volume": 429025.0, "trend": 0.641333, "fair_value": 1.98, "relative_strength": -23.698339, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 26.489351, "energy": 37.446385, "activity_lines": [ 0.598667, 0.559273, 0.540952, 0.578989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.65, "volume": 654000, "typical_volume": 361245.0, "trend": 0.635, "fair_value": 1.963013, "relative_strength": -29.122791, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.572681, "energy": 36.265295, "activity_lines": [ 0.624667, 0.58, 0.549619, 0.579548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.62, "volume": 649800, "typical_volume": 336375.0, "trend": 0.628, "fair_value": 1.945705, "relative_strength": -31.755336, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.783305, "energy": 39.120489, "activity_lines": [ 0.631333, 0.592909, 0.556762, 0.578581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 240600, "typical_volume": 319700.0, "trend": 0.619, "fair_value": 1.928205, "relative_strength": -35.663648, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.680976, "energy": 27.013903, "activity_lines": [ 0.616667, 0.594545, 0.559095, 0.574839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 273800, "typical_volume": 313780.0, "trend": 0.608, "fair_value": 1.910321, "relative_strength": -38.906139, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.420679, "energy": 16.496557, "activity_lines": [ 0.586, 0.587091, 0.557857, 0.569097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }