{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3db7fbfb-333a-4cd5-b8b6-ba44682e3f4c", "symbol": "300505", "name": "Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.995, "architecture_energy": 72.108, "architecture_maturity": 33.589, "architecture_confidence": 90.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.2, "rotation_up": 11.63, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 38.34, "rotation_down": 67.61, "downward_expansion": 87.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.412, 19.806909, 21.283464, 23.275217 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.17, "trend_reference": 25.386074, "distance_from_trend": -0.244862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.476991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.4809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319417, "excess_performance": -0.326817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452035, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92600478, "relative_activity": 1.033728, "balance": 0.452035, "dry_up": 1.115594, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165421, "annualized_volatility": 0.781575, "from_high_reference": -0.52336, "from_low_reference": 0.220242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.386074, "fair_value_reference": 17.476991, "structural_low": 15.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.034342, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.01422, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.530572, "worst_return": -0.315833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.094641, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.089526, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.852941, "worst_return": -0.407904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010681, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044943, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.548086, "worst_return": -0.259418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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25.274638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 99839291, "typical_volume": 120095206.7, "trend": 25.7796, "fair_value": 17.464926, "relative_strength": -27.270317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.632259, "energy": 51.011874, "activity_lines": [ 20.947333, 21.467584, 23.097179, 24.71914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.42, "volume": 86302885, "typical_volume": 110933196.0, "trend": 25.601657, "fair_value": 17.46769, "relative_strength": -30.849723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.885082, "energy": 74.188355, "activity_lines": [ 19.19, 20.483571, 22.235868, 24.115294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.889999, "volume": 120993416, "typical_volume": 101277183.15, "trend": 25.479548, "fair_value": 17.478006, "relative_strength": -18.994389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.566327, "energy": 71.287776, "activity_lines": [ 18.583999, 20.088, 21.70041, 23.682284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.17, "volume": 92600478, "typical_volume": 89579165.8, "trend": 25.386074, "fair_value": 17.476991, "relative_strength": -21.4809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.994666, "energy": 72.107805, "activity_lines": [ 18.412, 19.806909, 21.283464, 23.275217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }