{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dbbe07f-715a-41eb-b077-39b9f65bdb35", "symbol": "UNIVAFOODS", "name": "Univa Foods Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.728, "architecture_energy": 35.62, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 36.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.01, "rotation_up": 49.69, "upward_expansion": 41.93, "deceleration": 44.42, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 47.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.832, 8.751455, 8.567333, 8.766667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.6, "trend_reference": 9.276, "distance_from_trend": -0.072876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.092628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.940166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.244288, "excess_performance": -0.200579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072876, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108793, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244288, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.19572, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12150, "relative_activity": 2.583293, "balance": 0.19572, "dry_up": 0.64981, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0178, "annualized_volatility": 0.228691, "from_high_reference": -0.396067, "from_low_reference": 0.103979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.276, "fair_value_reference": 9.092628, "structural_low": 7.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002419, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.059891, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.196078, "worst_return": -0.206025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.284314, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.243729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": 0.245098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.137503, "energy": 39.761589, "activity_lines": [ 8.57, 8.454, 8.487571, 8.965441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.99, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 4385.45, "trend": 9.744333, "fair_value": 9.02, "relative_strength": -16.980366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.372831, "energy": 28.100278, "activity_lines": [ 8.71, 8.573636, 8.510476, 8.905484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4355.45, "trend": 9.569333, "fair_value": 9.044936, "relative_strength": -14.565482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.353074, "energy": 39.999278, "activity_lines": [ 8.822, 8.671455, 8.537762, 8.856817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4297.1, "trend": 9.418, "fair_value": 9.069231, "relative_strength": -16.241075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.911345, "energy": 50.74178, "activity_lines": [ 8.906, 8.754364, 8.569429, 8.819441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6, "volume": 12150, "typical_volume": 4703.3, "trend": 9.276, "fair_value": 9.092628, "relative_strength": -19.940166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.728425, "energy": 35.619954, "activity_lines": [ 8.832, 8.751455, 8.567333, 8.766667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }