{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dbc97ef-9219-47fc-9e6e-28dba406dd71", "symbol": "XLC", "name": "State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.811, "architecture_energy": 46.601, "architecture_maturity": 18.33, "architecture_confidence": 78.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.51, "rotation_up": 20.28, "upward_expansion": 6.72, "deceleration": 56.84, "rotation_down": 51.06, "downward_expansion": 75.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1895.880013, 1903.521145, 1935.344283, 1957.280864 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1903.0, "trend_reference": 1982.025106, "distance_from_trend": -0.039871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2012.671127, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.668851, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041262, "excess_performance": 0.013405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05449, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054574, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021339, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041262, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.261748, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19361, "relative_activity": 3.362657, "balance": 14.261748, "dry_up": 4.738522, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026175, "annualized_volatility": 0.179757, "from_high_reference": -0.12623, "from_low_reference": 0.032897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1982.025106, "fair_value_reference": 2012.671127, "structural_low": 1842.390015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1950.0, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1860.0, "volume": 6467, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1873.050049, "volume": 83189, "typical_volume": 4789.6, "trend": 1989.125041, "fair_value": 2014.042017, "relative_strength": -10.430184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.663584, "energy": 50.497084, "activity_lines": [ 1899.416683, 1906.540934, 1941.426385, 1962.837319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1903.0, "volume": 19361, "typical_volume": 5757.65, "trend": 1982.025106, "fair_value": 2012.671127, "relative_strength": -8.668851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.811059, "energy": 46.601386, "activity_lines": [ 1895.880013, 1903.521145, 1935.344283, 1957.280864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }