{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dbe20d3-7f05-4ff6-8470-911da1feb83e", "symbol": "UNH", "name": "UnitedHealth Group Incorporated", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.014, "architecture_energy": 46.232, "architecture_maturity": 90.063, "architecture_confidence": 61.622, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.53, "rotation_up": 42.87, "upward_expansion": 69.94, "deceleration": 65.44, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 19.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 415.468, 417.228951, 402.200732, 378.001218 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 407.08, "trend_reference": 349.939269, "distance_from_trend": 0.163288, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 427.843053, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.042917, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.491618, "excess_performance": 0.365993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070429, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01738, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.491618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22683132, "relative_activity": 0.669412, "balance": 0.942847, "dry_up": 0.813955, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055658, "annualized_volatility": 0.283924, "from_high_reference": -0.118149, "from_low_reference": 0.658259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 349.939269, "fair_value_reference": 427.843053, "structural_low": 254.463034, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005357, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.009722, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.131459, "worst_return": -0.1504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014263, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.00499, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.069519, "worst_return": -0.207665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027606, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.091561, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.138398, "worst_return": -0.098204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 426.09, "volume": 39764417, "typical_volume": 37024769.8, "trend": 341.816339, "fair_value": 429.007758, "relative_strength": 18.657573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.370978, "energy": 69.318318, "activity_lines": [ 424.116667, 414.638964, 388.095878, 364.595205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 420.74, "volume": 24507796, "typical_volume": 36489496.8, "trend": 344.929472, "fair_value": 428.672147, "relative_strength": 17.228474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.247571, "energy": 63.783084, "activity_lines": [ 424.035333, 417.237513, 394.083572, 369.687054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 414.4, "volume": 23368742, "typical_volume": 35730278.0, "trend": 347.680997, "fair_value": 428.296981, "relative_strength": 13.409584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.209817, "energy": 58.324503, "activity_lines": [ 420.522, 418.154235, 398.809689, 374.169024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 407.08, "volume": 22683132, "typical_volume": 33885175.95, "trend": 349.939269, "fair_value": 427.843053, "relative_strength": 7.042917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.014233, "energy": 46.231603, "activity_lines": [ 415.468, 417.228951, 402.200732, 378.001218 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }