{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dc4cfb3-845c-43bd-9881-eb011ffcc19b", "symbol": "BNO", "name": "United States Brent Crude Oil Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.35, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.622, "architecture_energy": 30.346, "architecture_maturity": 44.494, "architecture_confidence": 56.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.8, "rotation_up": 60.94, "upward_expansion": 67.23, "deceleration": 65.15, "rotation_down": 9.61, "downward_expansion": 10.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.897333, 46.822364, 48.270286, 47.908753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.93, "trend_reference": 45.38, "distance_from_trend": 0.034156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.811154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.430306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.198102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.465646, "excess_performance": 0.340022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034156, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.430306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091981, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.465646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12663010, "relative_activity": 0.658925, "balance": 0.515967, "dry_up": 0.59633, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108205, "annualized_volatility": 0.630468, "from_high_reference": -0.228252, "from_low_reference": 0.729182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.38, "fair_value_reference": 32.811154, "structural_low": 31.52, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.04874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040094, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.150167, "worst_return": -0.053392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.747733, "worst_return": -0.094972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003928, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.072485, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.409989, "worst_return": -0.04668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.113375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.682766, "worst_return": 0.033868, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001962, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044315, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06993, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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-14.192237, "energy": 33.476407, "activity_lines": [ 42.538, 46.581455, 48.72219, 46.358903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.15, "volume": 9064214, "typical_volume": 24627475.4, "trend": 42.546667, "fair_value": 32.273654, "relative_strength": 2.983474, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.271307, "energy": 48.167104, "activity_lines": [ 41.729333, 45.217091, 48.149476, 46.363204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.7, "volume": 11762484, "typical_volume": 24708763.85, "trend": 43.239, "fair_value": 32.410321, "relative_strength": 20.148295, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.381356, "energy": 29.39857, "activity_lines": [ 43.707333, 45.318545, 48.16119, 46.760194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.58, "volume": 10149783, "typical_volume": 23431149.1, "trend": 44.055333, "fair_value": 32.563782, "relative_strength": 29.413584, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.594741, "energy": 17.797455, "activity_lines": [ 46.92, 46.205636, 48.476286, 47.362839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.38, "volume": 11265077, "typical_volume": 21087988.9, "trend": 44.793, "fair_value": 32.699359, "relative_strength": 21.924008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.243046, "energy": 27.648413, "activity_lines": [ 48.819333, 46.785636, 48.540762, 47.770882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.93, "volume": 12663010, "typical_volume": 19217685.45, "trend": 45.38, "fair_value": 32.811154, "relative_strength": 9.198102, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.622178, "energy": 30.346477, "activity_lines": [ 48.897333, 46.822364, 48.270286, 47.908753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }