{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dc6b9a0-74c8-4097-afa2-80e8893b7c0d", "symbol": "002548", "name": "Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.293, "architecture_energy": 49.912, "architecture_maturity": 80.974, "architecture_confidence": 86.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 28.99, "upward_expansion": 8.97, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 41.99, "downward_expansion": 77.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.914667, 3.919818, 4.144381, 4.54572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 5.129333, "distance_from_trend": -0.229919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.788718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.171455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411326, "excess_performance": -0.418726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411326, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.480418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115362183, "relative_activity": 0.988872, "balance": 0.480418, "dry_up": 1.373534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097176, "annualized_volatility": 0.464842, "from_high_reference": -0.453665, "from_low_reference": 0.131805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.129333, "fair_value_reference": 4.788718, "structural_low": 3.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005017, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.007464, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.214679, "worst_return": -0.194059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031008, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.083766, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.41556, "worst_return": -0.222656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.348837, "worst_return": -0.293073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020779, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1375, "active": false }, { "regime": 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4.09, "volume": 256831811, "typical_volume": 121409382.4, "trend": 5.337, "fair_value": 4.854872, "relative_strength": -20.171704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.829688, "energy": 50.490704, "activity_lines": [ 4.014, 4.005818, 4.374476, 4.821333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.76, "volume": 154179059, "typical_volume": 119061592.15, "trend": 5.274667, "fair_value": 4.831474, "relative_strength": -26.655434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.831102, "energy": 48.790739, "activity_lines": [ 3.956, 3.946, 4.276, 4.719591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.83, "volume": 114575023, "typical_volume": 116922146.0, "trend": 5.200333, "fair_value": 4.808205, "relative_strength": -23.881937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.09027, "energy": 49.736902, "activity_lines": [ 3.926, 3.917091, 4.198429, 4.626387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 115362183, "typical_volume": 116660386.45, "trend": 5.129333, "fair_value": 4.788718, "relative_strength": -25.171455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.293294, "energy": 49.911521, "activity_lines": [ 3.914667, 3.919818, 4.144381, 4.54572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }