{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dc87d74-1771-4784-aa75-0218d1b9828a", "symbol": "IEDI", "name": "ISHARES U.S. CONSUMER FOCUSED ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.833, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.029, "architecture_energy": 22.993, "architecture_maturity": 34.288, "architecture_confidence": 39.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.4, "rotation_up": 52.6, "upward_expansion": 35.69, "deceleration": 30.44, "rotation_down": 23.36, "downward_expansion": 24.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.892767, 55.551453, 55.39392, 55.423567 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.3589, "trend_reference": 55.763839, "distance_from_trend": 0.028604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.560174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.213765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012455, "excess_performance": -0.138079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.791604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23827, "relative_activity": 1.629559, "balance": 0.791604, "dry_up": 0.838169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025639, "annualized_volatility": 0.138321, "from_high_reference": -0.014478, "from_low_reference": 0.103823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.763839, "fair_value_reference": 50.560174, "structural_low": 52.665407, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006436, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.000581, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.054422, "worst_return": -0.103545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026151, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.135878, "worst_return": -0.049431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030501, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197707, "worst_return": -0.072462, 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"energy": 14.901788, "activity_lines": [ 55.279495, 55.109984, 55.219618, 55.512024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.8862, "volume": 19447, "typical_volume": 13902.7, "trend": 55.793233, "fair_value": 50.157501, "relative_strength": -11.195465, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.783562, "energy": 14.442696, "activity_lines": [ 55.206907, 55.058121, 55.176529, 55.451628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.2109, "volume": 5641, "typical_volume": 13830.15, "trend": 55.789995, "fair_value": 50.25602, "relative_strength": -8.987597, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.38441, "energy": 12.925046, "activity_lines": [ 55.185687, 55.093185, 55.176074, 55.414058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.0838, "volume": 6494, "typical_volume": 13773.45, "trend": 55.73937, "fair_value": 50.344893, "relative_strength": -10.011754, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.784161, "energy": 29.153538, "activity_lines": [ 54.812153, 54.933701, 55.079628, 55.303981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.0094, "volume": 13060, "typical_volume": 14035.65, "trend": 55.77534, "fair_value": 50.448431, "relative_strength": -7.531476, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.921111, "energy": 9.30201, "activity_lines": [ 55.156713, 55.129346, 55.176151, 55.321402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.3589, "volume": 23827, "typical_volume": 14621.75, "trend": 55.763839, "fair_value": 50.560174, "relative_strength": -8.213765, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.028773, "energy": 22.99264, "activity_lines": [ 55.892767, 55.551453, 55.39392, 55.423567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }