{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3dd61569-0280-4b4e-a105-72472398874a", "symbol": "GWT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Europe Growth UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.945, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.351, "architecture_energy": 43.139, "architecture_maturity": 50.52, "architecture_confidence": 78.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.53, "rotation_up": 39.84, "upward_expansion": 65.75, "deceleration": 87.57, "rotation_down": 27.27, "downward_expansion": 18.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 216.369999, 216.659091, 213.826287, 210.846044 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 220.649994, "trend_reference": 208.174334, "distance_from_trend": 0.059929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 194.723916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.807186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083743, "excess_performance": 0.030431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018072, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083743, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335, "relative_activity": 0.515385, "balance": 0.396432, "dry_up": 0.827308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018948, "annualized_volatility": 0.185151, "from_high_reference": -0.010982, "from_low_reference": 0.192574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 208.174334, "fair_value_reference": 194.723916, "structural_low": 185.020004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.012276, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012276, "worst_return": 0.012276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.083265, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083265, "worst_return": 0.083265, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.085568, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085568, "worst_return": 0.085568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.651291, "energy": 82.344396, "activity_lines": [ 218.243337, 215.855457, 210.757049, 208.630496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 213.199997, "volume": 1643, "typical_volume": 958.75, "trend": 206.757001, "fair_value": 194.167692, "relative_strength": 3.068708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.088468, "energy": 59.932094, "activity_lines": [ 216.726668, 215.810002, 211.346668, 209.07813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.350006, "volume": 157, "typical_volume": 740.75, "trend": 207.309334, "fair_value": 194.338728, "relative_strength": 3.111337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.394003, "energy": 44.403656, "activity_lines": [ 215.71667, 215.876366, 212.038431, 209.568001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.25, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 725.25, "trend": 207.781001, "fair_value": 194.50605, "relative_strength": 1.332745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.556775, "energy": 29.209625, "activity_lines": [ 214.870002, 215.714547, 212.664954, 210.015786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 220.649994, "volume": 335, "typical_volume": 650.0, "trend": 208.174334, "fair_value": 194.723916, "relative_strength": 1.807186, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.350584, "energy": 43.138869, "activity_lines": [ 216.369999, 216.659091, 213.826287, 210.846044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }