{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ddbd39c-2707-4226-a609-2d983910cc52", "symbol": "83188", "name": "ChinaAMC ETF Series - ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.323, "architecture_energy": 29.628, "architecture_maturity": 30.24, "architecture_confidence": 52.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.82, "rotation_up": 14.57, "upward_expansion": 15.78, "deceleration": 62.1, "rotation_down": 61.32, "downward_expansion": 40.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.137333, 48.892727, 49.42, 49.235269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.66, "trend_reference": 49.016, "distance_from_trend": -0.007263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.985151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.873153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012906, "excess_performance": 0.046487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008732, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410629, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178200, "relative_activity": 0.244165, "balance": 0.410629, "dry_up": 1.469349, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038035, "annualized_volatility": 0.140517, "from_high_reference": -0.06098, "from_low_reference": 0.144941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.016, "fair_value_reference": 40.985151, "structural_low": 45.540001, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.280113, "energy": 42.174454, "activity_lines": [ 50.793333, 50.613454, 49.791142, 49.386064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.439999, "volume": 364000, "typical_volume": 755359.65, "trend": 48.996, "fair_value": 40.706585, "relative_strength": 16.315583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.544214, "energy": 35.910876, "activity_lines": [ 50.682666, 50.620363, 49.908857, 49.485849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.860001, "volume": 771000, "typical_volume": 787349.65, "trend": 49.074, "fair_value": 40.776079, "relative_strength": 10.652302, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.824216, "energy": 28.829028, "activity_lines": [ 50.402666, 50.502182, 49.961333, 49.541591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.240002, "volume": 2251695, "typical_volume": 848858.8, "trend": 49.066, "fair_value": 40.833474, "relative_strength": 2.936158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.845903, "energy": 13.111753, "activity_lines": [ 49.330667, 49.905819, 49.757333, 49.423269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.98, "volume": 846435, "typical_volume": 800915.35, "trend": 49.067333, "fair_value": 40.878685, "relative_strength": 2.614754, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.398261, "energy": 28.368076, "activity_lines": [ 48.672, 49.505091, 49.632095, 49.353204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.619999, "volume": 1013203, "typical_volume": 768717.65, "trend": 49.040667, "fair_value": 40.923588, "relative_strength": -1.918093, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.226392, "energy": 34.303878, "activity_lines": [ 48.126667, 49.081818, 49.473714, 49.259828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.66, "volume": 178200, "typical_volume": 729835.55, "trend": 49.016, "fair_value": 40.985151, "relative_strength": 0.873153, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.323102, "energy": 29.627707, "activity_lines": [ 48.137333, 48.892727, 49.42, 49.235269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }