{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3de53484-a451-4298-8f20-00c710f84500", "symbol": "NVTS", "name": "Navitas Semiconductor Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.69, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.975, "architecture_energy": 41.751, "architecture_maturity": 5.496, "architecture_confidence": 63.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.15, "rotation_up": 14.9, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 53.02, "rotation_down": 65.96, "downward_expansion": 51.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.136, 14.008364, 16.862143, 15.845505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 14.154667, "distance_from_trend": -0.018698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.000481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.984149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.400543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.56772, "excess_performance": 0.380266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.235244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.984149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.937545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064005, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.711252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.56772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70536037, "relative_activity": 0.535917, "balance": 0.560559, "dry_up": 0.57175, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.406432, "annualized_volatility": 1.15026, "from_high_reference": -0.593503, "from_low_reference": 1.553309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.154667, "fair_value_reference": 7.000481, "structural_low": 7.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.218884, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.143823, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.401942, "worst_return": -0.258993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.084867, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.963286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.008584, "worst_return": 0.161151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.847457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.600593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.008584, "worst_return": -0.313669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.063294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.771048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.755365, "worst_return": -0.628777, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.227468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.401361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.334471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151883, "active": false }, { 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19.856545, 18.587, 16.385828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.46, "volume": 64576566, "typical_volume": 136934642.45, "trend": 13.827333, "fair_value": 6.951699, "relative_strength": -7.801443, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.917868, "energy": 25.517097, "activity_lines": [ 14.212, 18.065818, 18.141238, 16.240946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.92, "volume": 62928992, "typical_volume": 136357789.55, "trend": 13.944667, "fair_value": 6.957147, "relative_strength": -10.757372, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.045382, "energy": 36.454829, "activity_lines": [ 12.471333, 16.299455, 17.632333, 16.053376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.86, "volume": 102967458, "typical_volume": 134682997.3, "trend": 14.027333, "fair_value": 6.964647, "relative_strength": -11.861741, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.77113, "energy": 43.970326, "activity_lines": [ 11.584, 14.711273, 17.104762, 15.854366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 70536037, "typical_volume": 131617435.65, "trend": 14.154667, "fair_value": 7.000481, "relative_strength": 6.400543, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.974813, "energy": 41.750735, "activity_lines": [ 12.136, 14.008364, 16.862143, 15.845505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }