{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3deb07f1-4f62-478f-a650-4883d466ce54", "symbol": "DXRX", "name": "Diaceutics PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.453, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.377, "architecture_energy": 31.666, "architecture_maturity": 13.373, "architecture_confidence": 70.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.45, "rotation_up": 21.47, "upward_expansion": 12.73, "deceleration": 56.55, "rotation_down": 47.14, "downward_expansion": 69.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.566667, 142.436364, 147.954762, 150.370968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 153.0, "trend_reference": 153.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 127.474359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.126924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078313, "excess_performance": -0.129549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.268206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 564586, "relative_activity": 0.653619, "balance": 3.268206, "dry_up": 2.379956, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064354, "annualized_volatility": 0.388889, "from_high_reference": -0.15, "from_low_reference": 0.224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.866667, "fair_value_reference": 127.474359, "structural_low": 125.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002252, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017936, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.304636, "worst_return": -0.11413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015712, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.053935, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.361345, "worst_return": -0.103825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037089, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.482558, "worst_return": -0.128415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.245136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.189802, "active": false }, { 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154.367742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 142.5, "volume": 146859, "typical_volume": 488268.25, "trend": 152.766667, "fair_value": 126.141026, "relative_strength": -10.898005, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.509192, "energy": 39.61793, "activity_lines": [ 144.666667, 146.972727, 152.711905, 153.712903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.0, "volume": 157661, "typical_volume": 490952.95, "trend": 153.0, "fair_value": 126.384615, "relative_strength": -16.244196, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.594656, "energy": 61.644716, "activity_lines": [ 141.4, 143.872727, 150.935714, 152.566667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.0, "volume": 304965, "typical_volume": 491566.3, "trend": 153.016667, "fair_value": 126.676282, "relative_strength": -20.754648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.23489, "energy": 77.558865, "activity_lines": [ 136.633333, 140.436364, 148.661905, 151.01828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 143.5, "volume": 7195865, "typical_volume": 845172.25, "trend": 153.516667, "fair_value": 127.044872, "relative_strength": -12.749167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.118778, "energy": 62.229385, "activity_lines": [ 137.966667, 140.363636, 147.85, 150.404301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.0, "volume": 564586, "typical_volume": 863784.65, "trend": 153.866667, "fair_value": 127.474359, "relative_strength": -7.126924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.377444, "energy": 31.666113, "activity_lines": [ 142.566667, 142.436364, 147.954762, 150.370968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }