{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3deb1928-aed4-41d8-9180-68655ee545fe",
    "symbol": "HOME",
    "name": "Neinor Homes, S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -48.584,
    "architecture_energy": 34.138,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.183,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.131,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.83,
        "rotation_up": 13.94,
        "upward_expansion": 11.57,
        "deceleration": 51.76,
        "rotation_down": 60.37,
        "downward_expansion": 70.57
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.828667,
        16.077454,
        16.043033,
        16.311297
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 15.56,
    "trend_reference": 16.863227,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.077282,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 13.038585,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193381,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -21.271037,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.167891,
    "excess_performance": -0.292321,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077282,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024674,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.193381,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.152031,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.21271,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101173,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.167891,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.122404,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1398654,
      "relative_activity": 1.15016,
      "balance": 0.122404,
      "dry_up": 1.230595,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 8
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.056849,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.230945,
      "from_high_reference": -0.223364,
      "from_low_reference": 0.057065
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.863227,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.038585,
      "structural_low": 14.72,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.018515,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019257,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.187225,
        "worst_return": -0.072727,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.032727,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051372,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.253901,
        "worst_return": -0.045775,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.100424,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.115085,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.450171,
        "worst_return": -0.208203,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.195467,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028186,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.657402,
        "worst_return": -0.153304,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.572023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.084539,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.126087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034043,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013873,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.057537,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.01115,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025424,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.007721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036845,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032338,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1235848.6,
        "trend": 17.093903,
        "fair_value": 12.864105,
        "relative_strength": -16.328991,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.106068,
        "energy": 21.245009,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.54,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.86,
        "volume": 1377486,
        "typical_volume": 1239694.05,
        "trend": 17.032964,
        "fair_value": 12.923103,
        "relative_strength": -18.522988,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.817789,
        "energy": 18.479779,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.31,
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          16.477997
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.85,
        "volume": 1953211,
        "typical_volume": 1241103.25,
        "trend": 16.960879,
        "fair_value": 12.981702,
        "relative_strength": -18.81901,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.242877,
        "energy": 24.506239,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.097333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.56,
        "volume": 1398654,
        "typical_volume": 1216051.4,
        "trend": 16.863227,
        "fair_value": 13.038585,
        "relative_strength": -21.271037,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.583837,
        "energy": 34.138493,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.828667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}