{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3df52105-77ff-4346-848d-cddf6816a1b2", "symbol": "002356", "name": "Shenzhen Hemei Group Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.651, "architecture_energy": 61.254, "architecture_maturity": 42.694, "architecture_confidence": 89.005, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 48.92, "rotation_down": 64.32, "downward_expansion": 83.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.615333, 2.704909, 2.890571, 3.106667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.7, "trend_reference": 3.412, "distance_from_trend": -0.208675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.719295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.274056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.019982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328358, "excess_performance": -0.335758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093437, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.274056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178419, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.609603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83323382, "relative_activity": 0.708521, "balance": 0.609603, "dry_up": 0.854647, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094872, "annualized_volatility": 0.485494, "from_high_reference": -0.44898, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.412, "fair_value_reference": 3.719295, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.010811, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.006339, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.298765, "worst_return": -0.173797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027491, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.07066, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.297952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085324, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.081558, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.408488, "worst_return": -0.271144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155989, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.49, "volume": 137573119, "typical_volume": 201813868.25, "trend": 3.558333, "fair_value": 3.77109, "relative_strength": -30.507391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.345359, "energy": 85.120512, "activity_lines": [ 2.72, 2.860545, 3.060952, 3.281548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 103951051, "typical_volume": 167999262.5, "trend": 3.508333, "fair_value": 3.752692, "relative_strength": -29.643685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.881064, "energy": 83.262639, "activity_lines": [ 2.626, 2.782182, 2.98619, 3.213914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6, "volume": 77184890, "typical_volume": 142654551.5, "trend": 3.454, "fair_value": 3.735641, "relative_strength": -25.494945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.297759, "energy": 68.381327, "activity_lines": [ 2.597333, 2.730909, 2.929095, 3.155312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7, "volume": 83323382, "typical_volume": 117601878.3, "trend": 3.412, "fair_value": 3.719295, "relative_strength": -26.019982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.650982, "energy": 61.253773, "activity_lines": [ 2.615333, 2.704909, 2.890571, 3.106667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }