{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3df7e4c1-e755-49db-98c7-d0ee2fef9384", "symbol": "WNDG", "name": "Global X Wind Energy UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.941, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.809, "architecture_energy": 75.111, "architecture_maturity": 11.282, "architecture_confidence": 89.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 12.08, "upward_expansion": 17.49, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 70.83, "downward_expansion": 90.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.496733, 8.667745, 9.157195, 9.355203 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.6085, "trend_reference": 9.4706, "distance_from_trend": -0.091029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.787795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.659891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053127, "excess_performance": -0.104362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019287, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105384, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.12008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1877, "relative_activity": 0.349336, "balance": 0.12008, "dry_up": 0.348824, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053088, "annualized_volatility": 0.236554, "from_high_reference": -0.208341, "from_low_reference": 0.255432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.4706, "fair_value_reference": 7.787795, "structural_low": 8.201, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.010074, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.018608, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.059568, "worst_return": -0.078857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.045818, "worst_return": -0.056388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055765, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.125581, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.096274, "worst_return": -0.113292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018852, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051158, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 7.797744, "relative_strength": -6.449815, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.565152, "energy": 69.236307, "activity_lines": [ 8.943367, 9.252627, 9.620869, 9.618886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.2875, "volume": 2677, "typical_volume": 5669.7, "trend": 9.47415, "fair_value": 7.792551, "relative_strength": -10.742163, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.86032, "energy": 77.021668, "activity_lines": [ 8.700233, 9.022791, 9.479302, 9.542124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.51, "volume": 744, "typical_volume": 5580.15, "trend": 9.48445, "fair_value": 7.789372, "relative_strength": -9.438655, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.258361, "energy": 79.306854, "activity_lines": [ 8.5865, 8.871455, 9.365733, 9.47992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.424, "volume": 2199, "typical_volume": 5411.5, "trend": 9.481167, "fair_value": 7.786728, "relative_strength": -11.371004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.616509, "energy": 81.613905, "activity_lines": [ 8.4956, 8.737173, 9.248495, 9.411504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6085, "volume": 1877, "typical_volume": 5373.05, "trend": 9.4706, "fair_value": 7.787795, "relative_strength": -9.659891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.809028, "energy": 75.11127, "activity_lines": [ 8.496733, 8.667745, 9.157195, 9.355203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }