{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e01f32e-6f76-4fba-8e5a-b404bfe218d4", "symbol": "4220", "name": "Emaar The Economic City", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.042, "architecture_energy": 48.575, "architecture_maturity": 11.266, "architecture_confidence": 67.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.77, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 17.68, "deceleration": 46.16, "rotation_down": 61.97, "downward_expansion": 57.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.602, 9.755091, 10.100667, 10.106882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.61, "trend_reference": 10.019, "distance_from_trend": -0.040822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.57756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.069536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018008, "excess_performance": 0.049838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1046033, "relative_activity": 0.445146, "balance": 0.416948, "dry_up": 0.57592, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05283, "annualized_volatility": 0.458372, "from_high_reference": -0.31844, "from_low_reference": 0.207286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.019, "fair_value_reference": 14.57756, "structural_low": 7.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.87029, "energy": 39.298448, "activity_lines": [ 9.956, 10.198727, 10.365667, 10.217484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.62, "volume": 1097220, "typical_volume": 2558391.95, "trend": 10.039333, "fair_value": 14.773313, "relative_strength": -10.54067, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.850463, "energy": 50.640951, "activity_lines": [ 9.808667, 10.052, 10.306476, 10.187462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.82, "volume": 2237319, "typical_volume": 2548096.4, "trend": 10.03, "fair_value": 14.707557, "relative_strength": -8.763193, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.742581, "energy": 47.606759, "activity_lines": [ 9.767333, 9.973273, 10.261238, 10.173312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.4, "volume": 1032760, "typical_volume": 2398753.5, "trend": 10.009667, "fair_value": 14.640775, "relative_strength": -10.460648, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.792754, "energy": 55.789532, "activity_lines": [ 9.628, 9.831636, 10.17019, 10.132667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.61, "volume": 1046033, "typical_volume": 2349862.35, "trend": 10.019, "fair_value": 14.57756, "relative_strength": -10.069536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.042465, "energy": 48.574901, "activity_lines": [ 9.602, 9.755091, 10.100667, 10.106882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }