{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e03c8c8-d13b-4efc-a0de-be2e4a870dc9", "symbol": "AJEUAS", "name": "UBS MSCI AC Asia ex Japan SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.384, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.4, "architecture_energy": 26.463, "architecture_maturity": 65.747, "architecture_confidence": 81.752, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.23, "rotation_up": 18.41, "upward_expansion": 53.22, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.08, "downward_expansion": 19.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 238.694666, 242.943817, 241.698619, 235.174451 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 240.199997, "trend_reference": 226.745666, "distance_from_trend": 0.059337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.055741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.107271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150989, "excess_performance": -0.019902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059337, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08211, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083796, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1894, "relative_activity": 1.520674, "balance": 1.218633, "dry_up": 1.456042, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041782, "annualized_volatility": 0.230171, "from_high_reference": -0.083836, "from_low_reference": 0.371474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 226.745666, "fair_value_reference": 173.055741, "structural_low": 195.919998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0122, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000801, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.15171, "worst_return": -0.035283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100126, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.036096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263171, "worst_return": -0.019076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075775, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04735, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.291148, "worst_return": -0.024247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"energy": 63.04328, "activity_lines": [ 251.80933, 249.655271, 239.389333, 231.54815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 234.830002, "volume": 2214, "typical_volume": 1292.05, "trend": 222.683, "fair_value": 171.179523, "relative_strength": -0.56475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.078782, "energy": 40.861813, "activity_lines": [ 245.991998, 247.392908, 239.881666, 232.426731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 239.020004, "volume": 1648, "typical_volume": 1179.7, "trend": 224.296, "fair_value": 171.784138, "relative_strength": 1.223315, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.497306, "energy": 26.807672, "activity_lines": [ 242.496667, 246.018727, 240.700619, 233.480731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 235.889999, "volume": 1498, "typical_volume": 1204.65, "trend": 225.541333, "fair_value": 172.393625, "relative_strength": -0.902336, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.265702, "energy": 25.765657, "activity_lines": [ 239.372667, 244.046909, 241.063333, 234.228731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 240.199997, "volume": 1894, "typical_volume": 1245.5, "trend": 226.745666, "fair_value": 173.055741, "relative_strength": -2.107271, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.400319, "energy": 26.463264, "activity_lines": [ 238.694666, 242.943817, 241.698619, 235.174451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }