{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e042496-ddc7-4e26-bcda-ec848b50a157", "symbol": "ALPA3", "name": "Alpargatas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.168, "architecture_energy": 45.079, "architecture_maturity": 34.695, "architecture_confidence": 88.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.14, "rotation_up": 21.02, "upward_expansion": 6.21, "deceleration": 57.94, "rotation_down": 55.06, "downward_expansion": 79.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.308667, 9.423636, 9.816238, 10.236495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.87, "trend_reference": 10.727667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.588382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.994913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238426, "excess_performance": -0.181378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020861, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116400, "relative_activity": 1.120362, "balance": 0.711474, "dry_up": 0.525771, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082612, "annualized_volatility": 0.398993, "from_high_reference": -0.268347, "from_low_reference": 0.274956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.727667, "fair_value_reference": 8.588382, "structural_low": 8.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.056848, "positive_rate": 0.275862, "directional_follow_through": 0.724138, "median_excess_return": -0.074116, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.282113, "worst_return": -0.197926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.085517, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.074911, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.246251, "worst_return": -0.368183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.225526, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.243227, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.32425, "worst_return": -0.422214, "sufficient": true }, { 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104060.0, "trend": 10.872333, "fair_value": 8.597663, "relative_strength": -12.311548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.03258, "energy": 72.308184, "activity_lines": [ 9.511333, 9.728909, 10.171667, 10.552387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.55, "volume": 38300, "typical_volume": 103445.0, "trend": 10.793333, "fair_value": 8.590273, "relative_strength": -20.258002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.598327, "energy": 83.946211, "activity_lines": [ 9.146, 9.494, 9.98119, 10.402559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 22700, "typical_volume": 99695.0, "trend": 10.750667, "fair_value": 8.58695, "relative_strength": -16.970509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.547996, "energy": 70.085763, "activity_lines": [ 9.077333, 9.380545, 9.857476, 10.293312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.87, "volume": 116400, "typical_volume": 103895.0, "trend": 10.727667, "fair_value": 8.588382, "relative_strength": -6.994913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.168082, "energy": 45.078511, "activity_lines": [ 9.308667, 9.423636, 9.816238, 10.236495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }