{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e09a3b9-7445-4123-a44f-6781da980863", "symbol": "GAS2S", "name": "SG ETC Daily Short -2X Natural Gas Ftr", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.683, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 24.092, "architecture_energy": 32.524, "architecture_maturity": 15.067, "architecture_confidence": 45.171, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.57, "rotation_up": 50.6, "upward_expansion": 43.29, "deceleration": 45.57, "rotation_down": 18.74, "downward_expansion": 39.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.606133, 14.435164, 14.072133, 14.065798 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.674, "trend_reference": 16.113033, "distance_from_trend": 0.034814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.269075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.784209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -53.179159, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.954519, "excess_performance": 0.774626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340591, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.784209, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.531792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.954519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.868948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 580, "relative_activity": 0.280038, "balance": 0.868948, "dry_up": 0.233324, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105268, "annualized_volatility": 0.76452, "from_high_reference": -0.745435, "from_low_reference": 0.901471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.113033, "fair_value_reference": 77.269075, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085405, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04857, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183304, "worst_return": -0.213805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100666, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.140019, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.190527, "worst_return": -0.726829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.362126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.510483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030077, "worst_return": -0.754328, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100214, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.368575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.419045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.335662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.680101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035138, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 88.139999, "volume": 471, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.476956, "energy": 62.656296, "activity_lines": [ 11.8908, 12.569745, 13.228248, 15.213181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.74, "volume": 1078, "typical_volume": 2948.55, "trend": 19.899167, "fair_value": 79.484421, "relative_strength": -61.340548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.052955, "energy": 38.369064, "activity_lines": [ 12.8456, 12.808036, 13.365914, 14.857482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.772, "volume": 260, "typical_volume": 2734.15, "trend": 18.991733, "fair_value": 78.872254, "relative_strength": -59.906155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.123637, "energy": 24.653013, "activity_lines": [ 13.586133, 13.0868, 13.493752, 14.526697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.002, "volume": 226, "typical_volume": 2402.9, "trend": 17.929133, "fair_value": 78.371947, "relative_strength": -61.237611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.577038, "energy": 17.705024, "activity_lines": [ 13.875867, 13.254036, 13.540352, 14.204778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.108, "volume": 867, "typical_volume": 2270.15, "trend": 17.007067, "fair_value": 77.871357, "relative_strength": -54.666681, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.771144, "energy": 21.972199, "activity_lines": [ 14.785867, 13.819091, 13.789057, 14.087286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.674, "volume": 580, "typical_volume": 2071.15, "trend": 16.113033, "fair_value": 77.269075, "relative_strength": -53.179159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.091614, "energy": 32.524312, "activity_lines": [ 15.606133, 14.435164, 14.072133, 14.065798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }