{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e0e6dcb-a202-4ae5-807b-b50616c8f966", "symbol": "BPH", "name": "BPH Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.629, "architecture_energy": 64.613, "architecture_maturity": 62.951, "architecture_confidence": 94.022, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.79, "rotation_down": 65.63, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002767, 0.003155, 0.004712, 0.005663 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.007033, "distance_from_trend": -0.57346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.015696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.808863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.640952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.7, "excess_performance": -0.763706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.57346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.808863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.66641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.40787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.7, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2983499, "relative_activity": 0.391139, "balance": 0.306419, "dry_up": 0.990849, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.423077, "annualized_volatility": 1.286146, "from_high_reference": -0.863636, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007033, "fair_value_reference": 0.015696, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.029571, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.040209, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.933302, "worst_return": -0.51352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.167323, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.177279, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.613177, "worst_return": -0.67568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.342381, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.291452, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.493161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.451613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.595238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.223211, "energy": 88.36768, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.0044, 0.005743, 0.006604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 4017816, "typical_volume": 8330296.2, "trend": 0.007517, "fair_value": 0.015913, "relative_strength": -71.437035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.48537, "energy": 89.631812, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.003855, 0.005357, 0.006265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 1534496, "typical_volume": 7925628.55, "trend": 0.0073, "fair_value": 0.015801, "relative_strength": -71.67249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.755137, "energy": 84.004052, "activity_lines": [ 0.0027, 0.003409, 0.004998, 0.005941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 2983499, "typical_volume": 7627724.15, "trend": 0.007033, "fair_value": 0.015696, "relative_strength": -66.640952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.62937, "energy": 64.612694, "activity_lines": [ 0.002767, 0.003155, 0.004712, 0.005663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }