{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e0ece91-09b1-4ba9-ac29-c20134335eec", "symbol": "VISA", "name": "Visa Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.41, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.612, "architecture_energy": 81.419, "architecture_maturity": 17.763, "architecture_confidence": 66.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.42, "rotation_up": 77.53, "upward_expansion": 97.2, "deceleration": 41.02, "rotation_down": 13.2, "downward_expansion": 19.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 313.653335, 308.252728, 296.442756, 288.642254 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 315.25, "trend_reference": 280.963024, "distance_from_trend": 0.122034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 271.767905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.39612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135858, "excess_performance": -0.038389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.692431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71, "relative_activity": 0.378162, "balance": 0.692431, "dry_up": 1.637816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036362, "annualized_volatility": 0.206152, "from_high_reference": -0.03549, "from_low_reference": 0.233768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 280.963024, "fair_value_reference": 271.767905, "structural_low": 255.517991, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001762, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.003343, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.088732, "worst_return": -0.08035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020169, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.042957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.171661, "worst_return": -0.073354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194265, "worst_return": -0.0634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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69.197109, "energy": 81.255527, "activity_lines": [ 300.76, 293.115088, 283.383321, 279.717541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 313.75, "volume": 212, "typical_volume": 159.85, "trend": 279.342338, "fair_value": 269.79464, "relative_strength": -8.345281, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.21454, "energy": 89.069524, "activity_lines": [ 306.79, 297.830907, 286.926804, 281.97791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 312.200012, "volume": 290, "typical_volume": 163.4, "trend": 279.76613, "fair_value": 270.46175, "relative_strength": -9.521823, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.695968, "energy": 86.471029, "activity_lines": [ 310.056671, 301.485455, 290.106176, 284.097759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 315.399994, "volume": 657, "typical_volume": 193.15, "trend": 280.4442, "fair_value": 271.120002, "relative_strength": -8.074842, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.432705, "energy": 84.297529, "activity_lines": [ 312.493335, 305.160909, 293.393071, 286.396718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 315.25, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 187.75, "trend": 280.963024, "fair_value": 271.767905, "relative_strength": -10.39612, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.611799, "energy": 81.419273, "activity_lines": [ 313.653335, 308.252728, 296.442756, 288.642254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }