{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e137796-0d1f-4e3a-86ba-c176c067b28b", "symbol": "XITK", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR FACTSET INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.938, "architecture_energy": 33.254, "architecture_maturity": 54.511, "architecture_confidence": 90.67, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 34.39, "upward_expansion": 61.22, "deceleration": 95.35, "rotation_down": 29.65, "downward_expansion": 15.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 189.588793, 188.643031, 187.46413, 180.772986 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 205.3956, "trend_reference": 173.425987, "distance_from_trend": 0.184342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.654093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262775, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.984347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.327874, "excess_performance": 0.202249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067912, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029843, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.327874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.109344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46854, "relative_activity": 4.447651, "balance": 4.109344, "dry_up": 1.361378, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06028, "annualized_volatility": 0.310202, "from_high_reference": -0.027598, "from_low_reference": 0.45619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 173.425987, "fair_value_reference": 162.654093, "structural_low": 141.05, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024772, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.025706, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.070335, "worst_return": -0.05684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015108, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175717, "worst_return": -0.145557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035423, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.048323, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.14656, "worst_return": -0.174623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-3.284274, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.942049, "energy": 30.449724, "activity_lines": [ 189.732447, 191.235973, 183.55672, 177.162269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.5435, "volume": 5301, "typical_volume": 10904.4, "trend": 172.680847, "fair_value": 161.632894, "relative_strength": -6.216708, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.417212, "energy": 21.95137, "activity_lines": [ 186.76372, 189.418056, 184.24764, 177.737645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.4943, "volume": 3488, "typical_volume": 9902.3, "trend": 172.49949, "fair_value": 161.849938, "relative_strength": -8.371632, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.145497, "energy": 18.836285, "activity_lines": [ 182.619733, 186.623704, 184.219308, 177.919158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.08, "volume": 1723, "typical_volume": 8547.65, "trend": 172.74178, "fair_value": 162.159266, "relative_strength": -4.582657, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.07013, "energy": 19.556198, "activity_lines": [ 182.512767, 185.581313, 184.905654, 178.666288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.3956, "volume": 46854, "typical_volume": 10534.55, "trend": 173.425987, "fair_value": 162.654093, "relative_strength": 2.984347, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.937958, "energy": 33.253776, "activity_lines": [ 189.588793, 188.643031, 187.46413, 180.772986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }