{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e16458a-3c98-435f-a84c-bdfd96d1589a", "symbol": "TCH-F146", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.641, "architecture_energy": 67.571, "architecture_maturity": 94.621, "architecture_confidence": 90.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.2, "rotation_up": 29.26, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 51.55, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.735333, 163.784909, 992.865095, 1481.107892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.87, "trend_reference": 2017.478333, "distance_from_trend": -0.98569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2723.252244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.943038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989487, "excess_performance": -1.070155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.929248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.696769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989487, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.274614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8624, "relative_activity": 1.331388, "balance": 0.274614, "dry_up": 1.23324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.303882, "annualized_volatility": 6.369112, "from_high_reference": -0.99011, "from_low_reference": 0.16788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2017.478333, "fair_value_reference": 2723.252244, "structural_low": 24.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016727, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029235, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.989635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000693, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.129058, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.119489, "worst_return": -0.065187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002774, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.201017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161376, "worst_return": -0.018046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105576, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.184443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231922, "worst_return": -0.020769, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02389, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.98878, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-06-30", "close": 2716.0, "volume": 5573, "typical_volume": 10215.0, "trend": 2579.266667, "fair_value": 2263.903846, "relative_strength": 14.231261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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5978.7, "trend": 2198.431333, "fair_value": 2756.723974, "relative_strength": -99.03456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33275, "energy": 88.563155, "activity_lines": [ 27.919333, 483.863455, 1337.061381, 1755.136108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.54, "volume": 6647, "typical_volume": 6141.75, "trend": 2107.416, "fair_value": 2740.182564, "relative_strength": -98.941325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.995079, "energy": 74.341195, "activity_lines": [ 28.534667, 300.380909, 1158.217857, 1615.207634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.87, "volume": 8624, "typical_volume": 6477.45, "trend": 2017.478333, "fair_value": 2723.252244, "relative_strength": -98.943038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.641206, "energy": 67.571411, "activity_lines": [ 28.735333, 163.784909, 992.865095, 1481.107892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }