{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e1d4c06-ac2e-4730-b5dd-b183c49981ea", "symbol": "ALSAS", "name": "Stradim Espace Finances SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.6, "architecture_energy": 33.584, "architecture_maturity": 19.83, "architecture_confidence": 45.7, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.41, "rotation_up": 53.57, "upward_expansion": 52.28, "deceleration": 28.51, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.512, 4.465091, 4.421048, 4.414624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 4.436667, "distance_from_trend": 0.072878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.488456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.126258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067265, "excess_performance": 0.013953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012391, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132725, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069543, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.322148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1489, "relative_activity": 1.210372, "balance": 1.322148, "dry_up": 0.438953, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054299, "annualized_volatility": 0.436957, "from_high_reference": -0.279419, "from_low_reference": 0.178218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.436667, "fair_value_reference": 5.488456, "structural_low": 4.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013555, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.11022, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056338, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.02813, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079865, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053438, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.06806, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -9.465021, "energy": 4.366154, "activity_lines": [ 4.398667, 4.391636, 4.380762, 4.394839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.4, "volume": 658, "typical_volume": 1186.65, "trend": 4.422, "fair_value": 5.504886, "relative_strength": -11.933356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.344874, "energy": 12.952303, "activity_lines": [ 4.392, 4.398909, 4.384, 4.392817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 1489, "typical_volume": 1230.2, "trend": 4.436667, "fair_value": 5.488456, "relative_strength": -6.126258, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.60036, "energy": 33.584225, "activity_lines": [ 4.512, 4.465091, 4.421048, 4.414624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }