{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e1de42d-070f-462e-a3bd-6fa395e4fd05", "symbol": "KESKOB", "name": "Kesko Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.27, "architecture_energy": 72.765, "architecture_maturity": 17.967, "architecture_confidence": 78.891, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 72.03, "upward_expansion": 89.31, "deceleration": 49.23, "rotation_down": 11.57, "downward_expansion": 15.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.193333, 21.978182, 21.288996, 20.984902 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.120001, "trend_reference": 20.584731, "distance_from_trend": 0.074583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.783743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243833, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.127123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177618, "excess_performance": 0.054042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.404252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4662998, "relative_activity": 3.36637, "balance": 4.404252, "dry_up": 2.264041, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027413, "annualized_volatility": 0.185951, "from_high_reference": -0.024691, "from_low_reference": 0.287562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.584731, "fair_value_reference": 17.783743, "structural_low": 18.427976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.017869, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.019731, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.142058, "worst_return": -0.140765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009029, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.047964, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.104802, "worst_return": -0.132074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041114, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.073882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038172, "worst_return": -0.100319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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86.307961, "activity_lines": [ 21.676, 21.003631, 20.705566, 20.524779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 22.4, "volume": 2050881, "typical_volume": 1228926.9, "trend": 20.454858, "fair_value": 17.655723, "relative_strength": 2.738519, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.434482, "energy": 90.66052, "activity_lines": [ 21.968, 21.350646, 20.880638, 20.653098 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 22.639999, "volume": 3751908, "typical_volume": 1287948.45, "trend": 20.520493, "fair_value": 17.701117, "relative_strength": 4.926473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.680343, "energy": 91.912182, "activity_lines": [ 22.24, 21.688383, 21.066471, 20.794075 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 21.9, "volume": 2078546, "typical_volume": 1284528.35, "trend": 20.541699, "fair_value": 17.74157, "relative_strength": 0.320512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.527051, "energy": 78.082375, "activity_lines": [ 22.194666, 21.836992, 21.170781, 20.883076 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 4662998, "typical_volume": 1385170.9, "trend": 20.584731, "fair_value": 17.783743, "relative_strength": 1.127123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.269529, "energy": 72.764566, "activity_lines": [ 22.193333, 21.978182, 21.288996, 20.984902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }